Hibernian vs Motherwell Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Hibernian 1-2 Motherwell.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Hibernian, 26% draw, 34% Motherwell — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hibernian at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hibernian vs Motherwell
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. SallingerG
- 5W. O'HoraD
- 6J. KerrD
- 21J. ObitaD
- 25F. PasslackM
- 8J. MulliganM
- 14M. ChaiwaM
- 3A. MayorM
- 7O. EldingF
- 9N. LoweF
- 10M. BoyleF
- 13J. SmithG
- 18T. KlidjeF
- 32J. CampbellM
- 22A. SutoF
- 47A. AbdulaiM
- 4G. HanleyD
- 27K. MegwaD
- 30J. MacIntyreM
- 20R. Molotnikov
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 7T. SparrowD
- 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
- 5M. MoormannD
- 20D. WilliamsD
- 77W. VogtM
- 12O. PriestmanM
- 8L. FadingerM
- 45E. LongeloM
- 19I. SaidF
- 17R. Charles-CookF
- 21Matty ConnellyG
- 23E. WilsonD
- 4J. Knight-LebelD
- 24L. RossM
- 25O. WhyteM
- 27M. BoothM
- 18T. MaswanhiseF
- 11A. LowryM
- 29Z. McAllisterM
Form going into Hibernian vs Motherwell
Hibernian
- W4-1Malisheva30 July 2026
- L0-2away to Malisheva23 July 2026
Motherwell
- W3-0away to HB Torshavn30 July 2026
- W2-0HB Torshavn23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hibernian | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 5 | Motherwell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Motherwell
- 2 August 2026Hibernian 1–2 MotherwellPremiership
- 16 May 2026Hibernian 0–1 MotherwellPremiership
- 21 March 2026Motherwell 0–0 HibernianPremiership
- 10 January 2026Hibernian 1–1 MotherwellPremiership
- 25 November 2025Motherwell 2–0 HibernianPremiership
- 11 January 2025Hibernian 3–1 MotherwellPremiership
Leading scorers: Hibernian and Motherwell
Hibernian
- C. Wright2 goals
- M. Boyle2 goals
Motherwell
- Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise1 goals2 assists
- A. Lowry1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.