Hibernian vs Motherwell Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Hibernian 1-2 Motherwell.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Hibernian, 26% draw, 34% Motherwell — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hibernian at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hibernian vs Motherwell
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. SallingerG
- 5W. O'HoraD
- 6J. KerrD
- 21J. ObitaD
- 25F. PasslackM
- 8J. MulliganM
- 14M. ChaiwaM
- 3A. MayorM
- 7O. EldingF
- 9N. LoweF
- 10M. BoyleF
- 13J. SmithG
- 18T. KlidjeF
- 32J. CampbellM
- 22A. SutoF
- 47A. AbdulaiM
- 4G. HanleyD
- 27K. MegwaD
- 30J. MacIntyreM
- 20R. Molotnikov
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 7T. SparrowD
- 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
- 5M. MoormannD
- 20D. WilliamsD
- 77W. VogtM
- 12O. PriestmanM
- 8L. FadingerM
- 45E. LongeloM
- 19I. SaidF
- 17R. Charles-CookF
- 21Matty ConnellyG
- 23E. WilsonD
- 4J. Knight-LebelD
- 24L. RossM
- 25O. WhyteM
- 27M. BoothM
- 18T. MaswanhiseF
- 11A. LowryM
- 29Z. McAllisterM
Form going into Hibernian vs Motherwell
Hibernian
All competitions we cover
- W4-1Malisheva30 July 2026
- L0-2away to Malisheva23 July 2026
Motherwell
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to HB Torshavn30 July 2026
- W2-0HB Torshavn23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hibernian | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 8 |
| 10 | Motherwell | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Motherwell
- 16 May 2026Hibernian 0–1 MotherwellPremiership
- 21 March 2026Motherwell 0–0 HibernianPremiership
- 10 January 2026Hibernian 1–1 MotherwellPremiership
- 25 November 2025Motherwell 2–0 HibernianPremiership
- 11 January 2025Hibernian 3–1 MotherwellPremiership
Leading scorers: Hibernian and Motherwell
Hibernian
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Motherwell
GoalsAssists
- A. Lowry31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Motherwell won 2–1 at Hibernian. The model had leaned towards a win for Hibernian at 40% and given a win for Motherwell 34%. The goals: L. Fadinger (penalty) 40' for Motherwell, M. Boyle (penalty) 56' for Hibernian, I. Said 85' for Motherwell. On expected goals it finished 1.92–2.00.