Falkirk vs St Mirren Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Falkirk 0-2 St Mirren.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% Falkirk, 27% draw, 54% St Mirren — fair odds of 5.26, 3.70 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts St Mirren at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Falkirk vs St Mirren
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 19Scott BainG
- 22Ryan StrainD
- 21Deniss MelniksD
- 5Liam HendersonD
- 17Scott TanserD
- 4Jack McMillanM
- 10Craig SibbaldM
- 18Joe GardnerM
- 14Finn YeatsM
- 12Ethan LaidlawM
- 9Ross MaclverF
- 47Aodhan DohertyF
- 7Ben ParkinsonF
- 23Ethan RossF
- 3Leon McCannD
- 11Paul McGovernF
- 1Nicky HogarthG
- 15Lewis NeilsonD
- 6Coll DonaldsonD
- 20Connor AllanD
- 1Jacob ChapmanG
- 2Jayden RichardsonD
- 13Alexander GogićD
- 22Marcus FraserD
- 53Henry FieldsonD
- 8Ryan CarrM
- 48Paul NsioM
- 10Samuel RamosM
- 88Killian PhillipsM
- 23Chris MochrieM
- 9Eseosa SuleF
- 20Jake YoungF
- 4Liam DonnellyM
- 16Luke ThomasM
- 7Roland IdowuM
- 27Peter UrminskyG
- 5Richard KingD
- 37Carrick McEvoyM
- 30Fraser TaylorM
- 32Luke DouglasF
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Falkirk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | St Mirren | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Falkirk vs St Mirren
- 21 March 2026Falkirk 1–2 St MirrenPremiership
- 10 January 2026St Mirren 0–2 FalkirkPremiership
- 13 September 2025Falkirk 1–2 St MirrenPremiership
- 28 April 2018Falkirk 1–0 St MirrenChampionship
- 17 April 2018St Mirren 1–2 FalkirkChampionship
Leading scorers: Falkirk and St Mirren
Falkirk
GoalsAssists
- J. Murrell50
St Mirren
GoalsAssists
- K. Phillips32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St Mirren won 2–0 at Falkirk. The model had made a win for St Mirren its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: K. Phillips 11' for St Mirren, K. Phillips 87' for St Mirren. On expected goals it finished 0.77–1.52.