1 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Falkirk vs St Mirren Premiership prediction & result

Falkirk Stadium, Falkirk
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Falkirk 0-2 St Mirren.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Falkirk, 27% draw, 54% St Mirren — fair odds of 5.26, 3.70 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts St Mirren at 54% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Falkirk0%Draw1%St Mirren99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽K. Phillipsassist: H. Fieldson
🔁J. Gardnerout: A. Doherty
59'
63'
🔁E. Suleout: J. Young
66'
R. Carr
🔁R. MacIverout: B. Parkinson
70'
🔁J. McMillanout: E. Ross
70'
•B. Parkinson
70'
76'
🔁S. Ramosout: L. Thomas
76'
🔁R. Carrout: L. Donnelly
🔁S. Tanserout: L. McCann
79'
🔁E. Laidlawout: P. McGovern
79'
80'
H. Fieldson
83'
🔁C. R. Mochrieout: R. Idowu
87'
⚽K. Phillipsassist: R. Idowu
88'
K. Phillips
90+1'
L. Thomas

Match stats — Falkirk vs St Mirren

58%Possession42%
10Shots15
1On target5
7Corners7
0.77xG1.52

Goals against chances

Falkirk0 from 0.77 xGless than the chances were worth
St Mirren2 from 1.52 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Falkirk 4-2-3-1
  • 19Scott BainG
  • 22Ryan StrainD
  • 21Deniss MelniksD
  • 5Liam HendersonD
  • 17Scott TanserD
  • 4Jack McMillanM
  • 10Craig SibbaldM
  • 18Joe GardnerM
  • 14Finn YeatsM
  • 12Ethan LaidlawM
  • 9Ross MaclverF
Substitutes
  • 47Aodhan DohertyF
  • 7Ben ParkinsonF
  • 23Ethan RossF
  • 3Leon McCannD
  • 11Paul McGovernF
  • 1Nicky HogarthG
  • 15Lewis NeilsonD
  • 6Coll DonaldsonD
  • 20Connor AllanD
Coach: John McGlynn
St Mirren 4-2-3-1
  • 1Jacob ChapmanG
  • 2Jayden RichardsonD
  • 13Alexander GogićD
  • 22Marcus FraserD
  • 53Henry FieldsonD
  • 8Ryan CarrM
  • 48Paul NsioM
  • 10Samuel RamosM
  • 88Killian PhillipsM
  • 23Chris MochrieM
  • 9Eseosa SuleF
Substitutes
  • 20Jake YoungF
  • 4Liam DonnellyM
  • 16Luke ThomasM
  • 7Roland IdowuM
  • 27Peter UrminskyG
  • 5Richard KingD
  • 37Carrick McEvoyM
  • 30Fraser TaylorM
  • 32Luke DouglasF
Coach: Craig McLeish

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Falkirk502337-42
4St Mirren631286+210

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Falkirk vs St Mirren

  • 1 August 2026Falkirk 0–2 St MirrenPremiership
  • 21 March 2026Falkirk 1–2 St MirrenPremiership
  • 10 January 2026St Mirren 0–2 FalkirkPremiership
  • 13 September 2025Falkirk 1–2 St MirrenPremiership
  • 28 April 2018Falkirk 1–0 St MirrenChampionship
  • 17 April 2018St Mirren 1–2 FalkirkChampionship

Leading scorers: Falkirk and St Mirren

Falkirk

No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

St Mirren

  • K. Phillips3 goals
  • Samu1 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.