Slovan Liberec vs Teplice Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Slovan Liberec 0-1 Teplice.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Slovan Liberec, 23% draw, 43% Teplice — fair odds of 2.94, 4.35 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Teplice at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slovan Liberec vs Teplice
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40Tomáš KoubekG
- 18Josef KoželuhD
- 14Augustin DrakpeD
- 29Lukáš HůlkaD
- 27Aziz KayondoD
- 8Lukáš MasopustM
- 60Fallou FayeM
- 24Patrik DulayM
- 19Vasil KušejM
- 5Petr HodoušM
- 9Lukáš MašekF
- 15Milan LexaM
- 12Vojtěch StránskýM
- 17Petr JulišF
- 94Ghislain Vénuste BaboulaF
- 99Raimonds KrollisF
- 33Lukáš PešlG
- 31Dominik KudelcikG
- 26Jan BořilD
- 3Jan MikulaD
- 29Matouš TrmalG
- 6Michal BílekD
- 4Oskars VientiessD
- 5Jakub JakubkoD
- 25Matej RizničD
- 23Lukáš MarečekM
- 8Jan FortelnýM
- 35Matej RadostaM
- 12Marcel ČermákM
- 17John AutaM
- 10Matej PulkrabF
- 3Josef ŠvandaM
- 20Artem HarzhaM
- 37Daniel MarečekM
- 16Petr KodesM
- 22Laco TakacsD
- 31Krystof LichtenbergG
- 13Denys TaradudaD
- 19Robert JuklM
- 14Ladislav KrejčíM
Form going into Slovan Liberec vs Teplice
Slovan Liberec
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Plzen25 July 2026
Teplice
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Bohemians 190525 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Slovan Liberec | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 20 |
| 8 | Teplice | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slovan Liberec vs Teplice
- 15 March 2026Slovan Liberec 1–1 TepliceCzech Liga
- 18 October 2025Teplice 1–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 8 December 2024Slovan Liberec 3–0 TepliceCzech Liga
- 10 August 2024Teplice 2–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 12 May 2024Slovan Liberec 1–2 TepliceCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Slovan Liberec and Teplice
Slovan Liberec
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Teplice
GoalsAssists
- John Auta40
- L. Mareček31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Teplice won 1–0 at Slovan Liberec. The model had made a win for Teplice its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: L. Marecek 61' for Teplice. Sent off: V. Kusej (Slovan Liberec) 1', P. Hodous (Slovan Liberec) 38'. On expected goals it finished 0.88–0.93.