Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Baník Ostrava 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Baník Ostrava, 29% draw, 44% Slavia Praha — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slavia Praha at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Martin JedličkaG
- 44Yevgeniy SkybaD
- 37Matěj ChalušD
- 42Jiri MicekD
- 34Abdullahi BeweneM
- 83Roan NoghaM
- 8Aboubacar TraoreM
- 18David PlankaM
- 99Vlasiy SinyavskiyM
- 12Abdallah GningF
- 15Václav JurečkaF
- 55Artúr MusákM
- 7Dantaye GilbertM
- 28Filip KubalaF
- 95Daniel HolzerM
- 22Vit SkrkonF
- 1Viktor BudinskýG
- 6Karel PojeznýD
- 17Michal FrydrychD
- 81Matúš KmeťD
- 35Jakub MarkovičG
- 3Tomáš HolešD
- 4David ZimaD
- 2Štěpán ChaloupekD
- 14Samuel IsifeM
- 23Michal SadílekM
- 30Wiktor NowakM
- 15Mubarak SuleimanM
- 18Adonija OuandaF
- 13Mojmír ChytilF
- 10Danijel ŠturmF
- 6Ange N'GuessanD
- 17Lukáš ProvodM
- 20Emmanuel AyaosiM
- 26Ivan SchranzF
- 27Tomáš VlčekD
- 29Nazar DomchakG
- 12Youssoupha MbodjiD
- 33Denis HalinskýD
- 32Pavel KačorM
Form going into Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha
Baník Ostrava
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Zlin25 July 2026
Slavia Praha
All competitions we cover
- W5-1Slovácko26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Baník Ostrava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 11 |
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha
- 5 April 2026Baník Ostrava 0–2 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 1 November 2025Slavia Praha 2–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 24 May 2025Slavia Praha 3–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 16 February 2025Slavia Praha 1–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 5 December 2024Baník Ostrava 0–1 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha
Baník Ostrava
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Slavia Praha
GoalsAssists
- W. Nowak51
- M. Chytil50
- E. Ayaosi42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Slavia Praha won 4–0 at Baník Ostrava. The model had made a win for Slavia Praha its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: W. Nowak 3' for Slavia Praha, D. Zima 14' for Slavia Praha, M. Sadilek 35' for Slavia Praha, E. Ayaosi 90+2' for Slavia Praha. On expected goals it finished 0.70–2.19.