Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Piast Gliwice 4-3 Wisla Krakow.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Piast Gliwice, 21% draw, 35% Wisla Krakow — fair odds of 2.27, 4.76 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Piast Gliwice at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 75Domen GrilG
- 28Filip BorowskiD
- 5Juande RivasD
- 29Igor DrapińskiD
- 36Jakub LewickiD
- 90Ivan LimaM
- 31Oskar LesniakM
- 27Jakub ŁabojkoM
- 80Hugo VallejoM
- 19Samuel Ntamack NdimbaF
- 17Quentin BoisgardF
- 77Szczepan MuchaM
- 10Andreas KatsantonisF
- 99Ema TwumasiD
- 7Jorge FélixF
- 11Leandro SancaM
- 12Marcel Mendes-DudzinskiG
- 3Elton FikajD
- 15Levis PitanD
- 4Jakub CzerwińskiD
- 1Marcel ŁubikG
- 34Raoul GigerD
- 6Alan UrygaD
- 13Maxence MaisonneuveD
- 52Jakub KrzyżanowskiD
- 41Kacper DudaM
- 12James IgbekemeM
- 51Maciej KuziemkaM
- 10Frederico DuarteM
- 17Marko BožićM
- 11Jordi SánchezF
- 2Julian LelieveldD
- 7Julius ErtlthalerM
- 9Ángel RodadoF
- 27Elie YouanF
- 8Marc CarboM
- 28Patryk LetkiewiczG
- 50Mariusz KutwaD
- 97Wiktor BiedrzyckiD
- 20Ervin OmićM
Form going into Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow
Piast Gliwice
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Zaglebie Lubin27 July 2026
Wisla Krakow
All competitions we cover
- W2-1GKS Katowice26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 20 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow
- 3 April 2024Wisla Krakow 2–1 Piast GliwiceCup
- 3 April 2022Wisla Krakow 2–2 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 1 October 2021Piast Gliwice 1–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 16 May 2021Piast Gliwice 2–3 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 31 January 2021Wisla Krakow 3–4 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow
Piast Gliwice
GoalsAssists
- Hugo Vallejo50
- Leandro Sanca41
Wisla Krakow
GoalsAssists
- Ángel Rodado41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Piast Gliwice beat Wisla Krakow 4–3. The model had made a win for Piast Gliwice its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: S. Ntamack 17' for Piast Gliwice, H. Vallejo 32' for Piast Gliwice, J. Sanchez 38' for Wisla Krakow, M. Bozic 55' for Wisla Krakow, J. Labojko (penalty) 65' for Piast Gliwice, J. Sanchez 69' for Wisla Krakow, L. Sanca 88' for Piast Gliwice. On expected goals it finished 1.74–3.31.