1899 Hoffenheim
vs
Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: 1899 Hoffenheim 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen
The model makes it 24% 1899 Hoffenheim, 21% draw, 55% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 4.17, 4.76 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.62, Bayer Leverkusen 2.65.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Bayer Leverkusen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- 1899 Hoffenheim are 17th on 3 points from 5 games; Bayer Leverkusen are 4th on 10 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Hamburger SV.
- Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-3 win away to FSV Mainz 05.
- Last 6 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended 1899 Hoffenheim 1–0 Bayer Leverkusen.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayer Leverkusen at 55% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
- L2-3Hamburger SV10 October 2026
- L1-3away to SC Paderborn 0720 September 2026
- W2-1VfB Stuttgart12 September 2026
- L2-3Borussia Dortmund5 September 2026
- L2-3away to 1. FC Köln29 August 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
- W4-3away to FSV Mainz 0510 October 2026
- W2-0RB Leipzig20 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg12 September 2026
- W4-0Union Berlin5 September 2026
- L2-3away to SV Elversberg29 August 2026
What these results say
- 1899 Hoffenheim scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1899 Hoffenheim conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for 1899 Hoffenheim had three goals or more.
- Bayer Leverkusen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bayer Leverkusen had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
- 17 January 20261899 Hoffenheim 1–0 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 23 August 2025Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 2 February 2025Bayer Leverkusen 3–1 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 14 September 20241899 Hoffenheim 1–4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 30 March 2024Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 4 November 20231899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Leading scorers: 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
GoalsAssists
- A. Daghim22
Bayer Leverkusen
GoalsAssists
- P. Schick51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
1899 Hoffenheim carry a model rating of 6.79 against 7.12 for Bayer Leverkusen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 2.65 for Bayer Leverkusen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1899 Hoffenheim rate 1.05 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bayer Leverkusen rate 1.42 and 0.84.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim against 2.65 for Bayer Leverkusen. 1899 Hoffenheim's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.42/0.84 for Bayer Leverkusen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
1899 Hoffenheim at home · Bayer Leverkusen away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
1899 HoffenheimBayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim are 16th after 5 Bundesliga matches (between 10th and 16th so far); Bayer Leverkusen are 4th after 5 (between 3rd and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: 1899 Hoffenheim 5, Bayer Leverkusen 5.
1899 Hoffenheim score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Bayer Leverkusen have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
1899 Hoffenheim
- at Holstein Kiel27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 48%
- at Werder Bremen31 Oct · Bundesligawin 34%
- at Crystal Palace5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
Bayer Leverkusen
- vs 1. FC Nürnberg27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 74%
- vs VfB Stuttgart31 Oct · Bundesligawin 53%
- vs Marseille5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 56%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.