Regular Season - 13 · 29 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus 2. Bundesliga prediction

Avnet-Arena, Magdeburg

Our model says: 1. FC Magdeburg 2–1 Energie Cottbus

The model makes it 57% 1. FC Magdeburg, 21% draw, 22% Energie Cottbus — fair odds of 1.75, 4.76 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.49, Energie Cottbus 1.39.

Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Edge to 1. FC Magdeburg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. 1. FC Magdeburg's rating is built from 45 2. Bundesliga matches and Energie Cottbus's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.

Key facts

1. FC Magdeburg are 4th on 20 points from 11 games; Energie Cottbus are 12th on 11 points from 11 games — 2. Bundesliga.
1. FC Magdeburg are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to FC St. Pauli.
Energie Cottbus have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Eintracht Braunschweig.
Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 March 2016, ended Energie Cottbus 2–0 FC Magdeburg.

More 2. Bundesliga predictions

All 2. Bundesliga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus

69%

Both teams to score

74%

Over 2.5 goals

26%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

1. FC Magdeburg win Draw Energie Cottbus win

2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
2–06%
2–26%
3–05%
3–25%

Scores read 1. FC Magdeburg first; the other scorelines share the remaining 53%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Magdeburg at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus

1. FC Magdeburg

2. Bundesliga

W4-1FC St. Pauli8 November 2026
D1-1away to SV Darmstadt 9831 October 2026
W6-1Karlsruher SC24 October 2026
L0-2away to Dynamo Dresden18 October 2026
W3-0Hannover 9610 October 2026

Energie Cottbus

2. Bundesliga

D0-0away to Eintracht Braunschweig6 November 2026
L1-2VfL Bochum30 October 2026
D1-1away to 1. FC Heidenheim24 October 2026
D1-11. FC Nürnberg16 October 2026
L1-3away to SV Darmstadt 9810 October 2026

What these results say

1. FC Magdeburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
1. FC Magdeburg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Energie Cottbus did not win any of these 5 matches.
Energie Cottbus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Energie Cottbus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	25	14	+11	20
12	Energie Cottbus	11	2	5	4	18	20	-2	11

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

1. FC Magdeburg

Chance to finish in the top two · 19% today

Win 21%

Draw 16%

Defeat 14%

Energie Cottbus

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 11% today

Win 6%

Draw 10%

Defeat 13%

From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus

12 March 2016Energie Cottbus 2–0 FC Magdeburg3. Liga
26 September 2015FC Magdeburg 2–2 Energie Cottbus3. Liga
3 August 2013FC Magdeburg 0–1 Energie CottbusDFB Pokal

Leading scorers: 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus

1. FC Magdeburg

GoalsAssists

E. Iyoha60
M. Żukowski60

Energie Cottbus

GoalsAssists

T. Ciğerci52
J. Butler51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 5.2% chance of the title and Energie Cottbus 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

1. FC Magdeburg Energie Cottbus

0.92 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.71

1.4 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.56

2.49 Model expected goals (this match) 1.39

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives 1. FC Magdeburg the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.49 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.39 for Energie Cottbus. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.56 for Energie Cottbus.

1. FC Magdeburg carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.46 for Energie Cottbus.

How the model reaches 57% for 1. FC Magdeburg to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for 1. FC Magdeburg to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, 1. FC Magdeburg's ratings add 6 points and Energie Cottbus's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 57%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage43%+6
Both sides at this match's level45%+2
1. FC Magdeburg's ratings51%+6
Energie Cottbus's ratings57%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

1. FC MagdeburgModelEnergie Cottbus

Over 1.5 goals

100%

10 of 10 games

90%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

74%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

20%

2 of 10 games

54%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

50%

5 of 10 games

69%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

1. FC MagdeburgEnergie Cottbus

11Matches11

6W 2D 3LRecord2W 5D 4L

25 2.3 per gameGoals scored18 1.6 per game

14 1.3 per gameGoals conceded20 1.8 per game

4 of 11Clean sheets2 of 11

1 of 11Failed to score2 of 11

2 of 2Penalties scored3 of 3

24 2.2 per gameYellow cards22 2.0 per game

2Red cards0

4-3-3 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 9×

1. FC Magdeburg at home · Energie Cottbus away

6Played6

5W 0D 1LRecord1W 3D 2L

19–8Goals for – against9–11

3 of 6Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

1. FC MagdeburgEnergie Cottbus

1. FC Magdeburg are 4th after 11 2. Bundesliga matches (between 3rd and 18th so far); Energie Cottbus are 12th after 11 (between 2nd and 11th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: 1. FC Magdeburg 11, Energie Cottbus 11.

1. FC Magdeburg scored 434634

Energie Cottbus conceded 134128

1. FC Magdeburg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Energie Cottbus have let in 1 there.

Energie Cottbus scored 314443

1. FC Magdeburg conceded 332411

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

1. FC Magdeburg

at VfL Wolfsburg6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 30%
vs 1. FC Nürnberg11 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 43%
at VfL Bochum19 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 40%
vs 1. FC Heidenheim16 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 56%

Energie Cottbus

vs VfL Osnabrück4 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 44%
at Dynamo Dresden12 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 30%
vs Holstein Kiel18 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 43%
at 1. FC Kaiserslautern17 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 25%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.