Lusitânia Lourosa
vs
Vizela
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Lusitânia Lourosa 1–0 Vizela
The model makes it 47% Lusitânia Lourosa, 27% draw, 26% Vizela — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lusitânia Lourosa 1.67, Vizela 1.13.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Lusitânia Lourosa's rating is built from 44 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Vizela's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Lusitânia Lourosa are 4th on 19 points from 10 games; Vizela are 9th on 15 points from 10 games — Segunda Liga.
- Lusitânia Lourosa are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Feirense.
- Vizela have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to AVS.
- Last 4 meetings: Lusitânia Lourosa 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Vizela 4–3 Lusitânia Lourosa.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Vizela
Has the model earned this number?
Lusitânia Lourosa at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lusitânia Lourosa vs Vizela
Lusitânia Lourosa
Segunda Liga
- L0-1away to Feirense8 November 2026
- D1-1Farense1 November 2026
- D2-2away to Felgueiras 193225 October 2026
- D1-1Chaves11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sporting CP B14 September 2026
Vizela
Segunda Liga
- D2-2away to AVS6 November 2026
- W2-1Academica1 November 2026
- L1-2away to Chaves23 October 2026
- L0-2Sporting CP B10 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Porto B14 September 2026
What these results say
- Lusitânia Lourosa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vizela conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vizela failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vizela scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 19 |
| 9 | Vizela | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lusitânia Lourosa
Chance to finish in the top three · 21% today
Vizela
Chance to finish in the top three · 7% today
From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Vizela
- 15 March 2026Vizela 4–3 Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
- 29 October 2025Lusitânia Lourosa 1–1 VizelaSegunda Liga
- 2 August 2025Vizela 1–3 Lusitânia LourosaFriendlies Clubs
- 22 September 2024Lusitânia Lourosa 4–3 VizelaTaça de Portugal
Leading scorers: Lusitânia Lourosa and Vizela
Lusitânia Lourosa
GoalsAssists
- Mika Borges10
Vizela
No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lusitânia Lourosa a 4.5% chance of the title and Vizela 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lusitânia Lourosa the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Lusitânia Lourosa against 1.13 for Vizela. Lusitânia Lourosa's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.53 for Vizela.
How the model reaches 47% for Lusitânia Lourosa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Lusitânia Lourosa to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Lusitânia Lourosa's ratings add 2 points and Vizela's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Lusitânia Lourosa's ratings46%+2
- Vizela's ratings47%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Lusitânia Lourosa at home · Vizela away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Lusitânia Lourosa 10, Vizela 10.
Vizela score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Lusitânia Lourosa have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lusitânia Lourosa
- at Benfica B6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 21%
- vs Tondela12 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 43%
- at Portimonense20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 33%
- vs União de Leiria27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 44%
Vizela
- vs Farense6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 41%
- at Benfica B14 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 20%
- vs Penafiel20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 34%
- vs Leixoes27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 48%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.