Bolton
vs
Middlesbrough
Championship prediction
Our model says: Bolton 1–2 Middlesbrough
The model makes it 32% Bolton, 26% draw, 42% Middlesbrough — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Bolton 1.41, Middlesbrough 1.67.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Middlesbrough: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Bolton are 14th on 13 points from 10 games; Middlesbrough are 2nd on 21 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Bolton have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Wolves.
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-2 win away to Stoke City.
- Last 6 meetings: Middlesbrough 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 20 July 2024, ended Middlesbrough 3–0 Bolton.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Middlesbrough at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Bolton
- W3-1away to Wolves13 October 2026
- L1-2Stoke City10 October 2026
- W4-3away to Norwich20 September 2026
- W1-0Cardiff12 September 2026
- L2-3West Ham8 September 2026
Middlesbrough
- W3-2away to Stoke City13 October 2026
- W1-0Wolves10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham19 September 2026
- D2-2Millwall15 September 2026
- W4-3Norwich12 September 2026
What these results say
- Bolton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bolton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bolton had three goals or more.
- Middlesbrough went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 13 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bolton
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today
Middlesbrough
Chance to finish in the top four · 58% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Bolton and Middlesbrough have met 6 times in the records we hold, Middlesbrough has won 6 of them to Bolton's 0.
The record
Middlesbrough won the last one 3–0 on 20 Jul 2024.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| Middlesbrough | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 20 Jul 2024
Friendlies ClubsMiddlesbrough 3–0 Bolton - 29 Aug 2023
League CupBolton 1–3 Middlesbrough - 9 Apr 2019
ChampionshipBolton 0–2 Middlesbrough - 19 Sep 2018
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 2–0 Bolton - 26 Dec 2017
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 2–0 Bolton - 9 Sep 2017
ChampionshipBolton 0–3 Middlesbrough
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 0.78 | 1.56 |
| Middlesbrough | 0.90 | 1.20 |
Leading scorers: Bolton and Middlesbrough
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby40
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear80
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bolton carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.71 for Middlesbrough. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Bolton and 1.67 for Middlesbrough. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bolton rate 0.78 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Middlesbrough rate 0.90 and 1.20.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bolton a 0.2% chance of the title and Middlesbrough 20.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Middlesbrough the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Bolton against 1.67 for Middlesbrough. Bolton's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.2 for Middlesbrough.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bolton at home · Middlesbrough away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BoltonMiddlesbrough
Bolton are 12th after 10 Championship matches (between 1st and 22nd so far); Middlesbrough are 2nd after 10 (between 2nd and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Bolton 10, Middlesbrough 10.
Bolton score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Middlesbrough have let in 0 there.
Middlesbrough score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Bolton have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bolton
- vs Bristol City31 Oct · Championshipwin 43%
- at Charlton3 Nov · Championshipwin 33%
- at Derby6 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
- vs Portsmouth21 Nov · Championshipwin 44%
Middlesbrough
- vs Charlton31 Oct · Championshipwin 56%
- at Wrexham4 Nov · Championshipwin 40%
- at Watford7 Nov · Championshipwin 52%
- vs Bristol City21 Nov · Championshipwin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.