Serie A (Brazil)

1. Flamengo — 57 points from 27 played (17 won, 6 drawn, 4 lost), 53 scored, 22 conceded, goal difference +31. Form, oldest first: L W W W W.
2. Palmeiras — 56 points from 27 played (16 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost), 47 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference +26. Form, oldest first: L W D D W.
3. Atletico Paranaense — 46 points from 27 played (13 won, 7 drawn, 7 lost), 41 scored, 31 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: D W D L D.
4. Bahia — 46 points from 27 played (12 won, 10 drawn, 5 lost), 42 scored, 33 conceded, goal difference +9. Form, oldest first: D W W W W.
5. Fluminense — 45 points from 27 played (12 won, 9 drawn, 6 lost), 41 scored, 35 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: W W D W L.
6. Cruzeiro — 42 points from 27 played (12 won, 6 drawn, 9 lost), 39 scored, 39 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W W L W L.
7. Atletico Mineiro — 39 points from 26 played (11 won, 6 drawn, 9 lost), 35 scored, 31 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: W D W L W.
8. Coritiba — 38 points from 27 played (10 won, 8 drawn, 9 lost), 37 scored, 38 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: D W W L D.
9. RB Bragantino — 36 points from 26 played (10 won, 6 drawn, 10 lost), 32 scored, 29 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: D W L L D.
10. Santos — 35 points from 26 played (9 won, 8 drawn, 9 lost), 39 scored, 39 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W D W W W.
11. Sao Paulo — 33 points from 26 played (9 won, 6 drawn, 11 lost), 31 scored, 30 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: D L W W L.
12. Vitoria — 33 points from 27 played (9 won, 6 drawn, 12 lost), 27 scored, 39 conceded, goal difference -12. Form, oldest first: W L L W D.
13. Corinthians — 32 points from 27 played (8 won, 8 drawn, 11 lost), 28 scored, 29 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: L L L L L.
14. Botafogo — 32 points from 26 played (8 won, 8 drawn, 10 lost), 38 scored, 41 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: L L L D D.
15. Mirassol — 29 points from 27 played (7 won, 8 drawn, 12 lost), 31 scored, 42 conceded, goal difference -11. Form, oldest first: D D L W D.
16. Gremio — 28 points from 26 played (7 won, 7 drawn, 12 lost), 28 scored, 35 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: L L W L L.
17. Vasco da Gama — 28 points from 26 played (7 won, 7 drawn, 12 lost), 29 scored, 41 conceded, goal difference -12. Form, oldest first: L L W L W.
18. Internacional — 28 points from 27 played (6 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost), 30 scored, 35 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: D D L L W.
19. Remo — 23 points from 27 played (5 won, 8 drawn, 14 lost), 31 scored, 45 conceded, goal difference -14. Form, oldest first: D L L L L.
20. Chapecoense — 17 points from 26 played (3 won, 8 drawn, 15 lost), 28 scored, 52 conceded, goal difference -24. Form, oldest first: D W L W L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-09-14, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 16 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Remo — bottom-three risk up 5, to 77.9%.
• Gremio — bottom-three risk down 2, to 26.3%.
• Internacional — bottom-three risk down 1, to 28.7%.
• Flamengo — title chance down 0.9, to 56.7%.
• Palmeiras — title chance up 0.8, to 42.6%.

Season projection

Every one of the 114 matches this competition has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. Movement is measured against 2026-09-14, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Flamengo — projected to finish on 75.6 points, from 57 after 27 played. Wins it 56.7% (down 0.9), finishes top four 99.9%, bottom three 0%.
2. Palmeiras — projected to finish on 74.7 points, from 56 after 27 played. Wins it 42.6% (up 0.8), finishes top four 99.9%, bottom three 0%.
3. Atletico Paranaense — projected to finish on 62.8 points, from 46 after 27 played. Wins it 0.4%, finishes top four 64.8%, bottom three 0%.
4. Bahia — projected to finish on 61.3 points, from 46 after 27 played. Wins it 0.2% (up 0.1), finishes top four 47.8%, bottom three 0%.
5. Fluminense — projected to finish on 61.2 points, from 45 after 27 played. Wins it 0.1%, finishes top four 47.4%, bottom three 0%.
6. Cruzeiro — projected to finish on 57.2 points, from 42 after 27 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 14.9%, bottom three 0%.
7. Atletico Mineiro — projected to finish on 56.9 points, from 39 after 26 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 16.6%, bottom three 0%.
8. RB Bragantino — projected to finish on 53.1 points, from 36 after 26 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 3.8%, bottom three 0.2%.
9. Coritiba — projected to finish on 52.2 points, from 38 after 27 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 1.8%, bottom three 0.2%.
10. Sao Paulo — projected to finish on 50.8 points, from 33 after 26 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 1.4%, bottom three 1%.
11. Santos — projected to finish on 50.2 points, from 35 after 26 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 1%, bottom three 1.3%.
12. Botafogo — projected to finish on 49.1 points, from 32 after 26 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.6%, bottom three 2.7%.
13. Vitoria — projected to finish on 47.7 points, from 33 after 27 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom three 4.7%.
14. Corinthians — projected to finish on 47.1 points, from 32 after 27 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom three 5.4%.
15. Vasco da Gama — projected to finish on 43.6 points, from 28 after 26 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 23.8%.
16. Gremio — projected to finish on 42.9 points, from 28 after 26 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 26.3%.
17. Mirassol — projected to finish on 42.8 points, from 29 after 27 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 28.8%.
18. Internacional — projected to finish on 42.4 points, from 28 after 27 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 28.7%.
19. Remo — projected to finish on 37.1 points, from 23 after 27 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 77.9%.
20. Chapecoense — projected to finish on 29.9 points, from 17 after 26 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 98.9%.

Top scorers

1. K. Viveros (Atletico Paranaense) — 18 goals, 3 assists.
2. Pedro (Flamengo) — 15 goals, 5 assists.
3. Carlos Vinícius (Gremio) — 10 goals, 1 assist.
4. Gabriel Barbosa (Santos) — 10 goals, 2 assists.
5. Samuel Lino (Flamengo) — 9 goals, 7 assists.
6. John Kennedy (Fluminense) — 9 goals, 1 assist.
7. J. López (Palmeiras) — 8 goals, 4 assists.
8. Matheus Pereira (Cruzeiro) — 8 goals, 4 assists.
9. Pedro Rocha (Coritiba) — 8 goals, 1 assist.
10. Breno Lopes (Coritiba) — 8 goals, 1 assist.
11. Rene (Vitoria) — 8 goals, 1 assist.
12. Luciano (Sao Paulo) — 8 goals, 2 assists.
13. Luciano Juba (Bahia) — 8 goals, 1 assist.
14. J. Carbonero (Internacional) — 7 goals, 4 assists.
15. Danilo Santos (Botafogo) — 7 goals, 2 assists.
16. Maurício (Palmeiras) — 7 goals, 1 assist.
17. Jája Silva (Remo) — 7 goals, 1 assist.
18. Arthur Cabral (Botafogo) — 7 goals, 1 assist.
19. J. Calleri (Sao Paulo) — 7 goals, 1 assist.
20. Kaio Jorge (Cruzeiro) — 7 goals.