Serie A (Brazil)

1. Flamengo — 73 points from 33 played (22 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost), 68 scored, 28 conceded, goal difference +40. Form, oldest first: D W W W W.
2. Palmeiras — 70 points from 33 played (20 won, 10 drawn, 3 lost), 56 scored, 22 conceded, goal difference +34. Form, oldest first: W W W W D.
3. Cruzeiro — 57 points from 33 played (17 won, 6 drawn, 10 lost), 52 scored, 46 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: W L W W W.
4. Fluminense — 54 points from 33 played (15 won, 9 drawn, 9 lost), 52 scored, 42 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: W L L L W.
5. Atletico Paranaense — 54 points from 33 played (15 won, 9 drawn, 9 lost), 50 scored, 40 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: D W L D L.
6. Bahia — 53 points from 33 played (14 won, 11 drawn, 8 lost), 48 scored, 42 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: L W L D W.
7. Atletico Mineiro — 50 points from 33 played (14 won, 8 drawn, 11 lost), 44 scored, 39 conceded, goal difference +5. Form, oldest first: D W W L L.
8. Santos — 47 points from 33 played (12 won, 11 drawn, 10 lost), 49 scored, 47 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: D L W D D.
9. RB Bragantino — 44 points from 33 played (12 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost), 42 scored, 38 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: D W D L W.
10. Sao Paulo — 43 points from 33 played (12 won, 7 drawn, 14 lost), 39 scored, 39 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: L W W D L.
11. Botafogo — 39 points from 33 played (10 won, 9 drawn, 14 lost), 45 scored, 53 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: L D W L L.
12. Coritiba — 39 points from 32 played (10 won, 9 drawn, 13 lost), 38 scored, 50 conceded, goal difference -12. Form, oldest first: L L D L L.
13. Vasco da Gama — 38 points from 32 played (10 won, 8 drawn, 14 lost), 40 scored, 49 conceded, goal difference -9. Form, oldest first: W D L W L.
14. Vitoria — 38 points from 32 played (10 won, 8 drawn, 14 lost), 35 scored, 46 conceded, goal difference -11. Form, oldest first: L W L D D.
15. Gremio — 37 points from 33 played (9 won, 10 drawn, 14 lost), 37 scored, 44 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: D D L W W.
16. Mirassol — 37 points from 32 played (9 won, 10 drawn, 13 lost), 37 scored, 45 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: W D L W D.
17. Internacional — 35 points from 33 played (8 won, 11 drawn, 14 lost), 37 scored, 42 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: W D L W L.
18. Corinthians — 33 points from 32 played (8 won, 9 drawn, 15 lost), 34 scored, 42 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: L L L D L.
19. Remo — 29 points from 33 played (6 won, 11 drawn, 16 lost), 36 scored, 51 conceded, goal difference -15. Form, oldest first: D D D L W.
20. Chapecoense — 21 points from 32 played (4 won, 9 drawn, 19 lost), 32 scored, 66 conceded, goal difference -34. Form, oldest first: L L L W L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-10-29, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 10 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Gremio — bottom-three risk down 17.7, to 20.7%.
• Flamengo — title chance up 14.8, to 82.7%.
• Palmeiras — title chance down 14.8, to 17.3%.
• Corinthians — bottom-three risk up 6.4, to 40.1%.
• Internacional — bottom-three risk up 3.8, to 17%.

Season projection

Every one of the 53 matches this competition has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. Movement is measured against 2026-10-29, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Flamengo — projected to finish on 83.8 points, from 73 after 33 played. Wins it 82.7% (up 14.8), finishes top four 100%, bottom four 0%.
2. Palmeiras — projected to finish on 80.4 points, from 70 after 33 played. Wins it 17.3% (down 14.8), finishes top four 100%, bottom four 0%.
3. Cruzeiro — projected to finish on 65.1 points, from 57 after 33 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 79.4%, bottom four 0%.
4. Fluminense — projected to finish on 61.6 points, from 54 after 33 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 44.1%, bottom four 0%.
5. Atletico Paranaense — projected to finish on 61.5 points, from 54 after 33 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 42.3%, bottom four 0%.
6. Bahia — projected to finish on 60.4 points, from 53 after 33 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 26.5%, bottom four 0%.
7. Atletico Mineiro — projected to finish on 57.3 points, from 50 after 33 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 6.1%, bottom four 0%.
8. Santos — projected to finish on 55.1 points, from 47 after 33 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 1.5%, bottom four 0%.
9. RB Bragantino — projected to finish on 51.6 points, from 44 after 33 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom four 0%.
10. Sao Paulo — projected to finish on 50.1 points, from 43 after 33 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 0.1%.
11. Vasco da Gama — projected to finish on 45.8 points, from 38 after 32 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 10.1%.
12. Botafogo — projected to finish on 45.4 points, from 39 after 33 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 9.4%.
13. Mirassol — projected to finish on 45.4 points, from 37 after 32 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 12.5%.
14. Vitoria — projected to finish on 45.3 points, from 38 after 32 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 14.9%.
15. Coritiba — projected to finish on 44.2 points, from 39 after 32 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 21.4%.
16. Gremio — projected to finish on 42.3 points, from 37 after 33 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 39.4%.
17. Internacional — projected to finish on 42.2 points, from 35 after 33 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 35.8%.
18. Corinthians — projected to finish on 40.7 points, from 33 after 32 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 57.7%.
19. Remo — projected to finish on 34.8 points, from 29 after 33 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 98.7%.
20. Chapecoense — projected to finish on 25.6 points, from 21 after 32 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 100%.

Top scorers

1. K. Viveros (Atletico Paranaense) — 21 goals, 3 assists.
2. Pedro (Flamengo) — 18 goals, 6 assists.
3. Gabriel Barbosa (Santos) — 15 goals, 3 assists.
4. Kaio Jorge (Cruzeiro) — 12 goals, 2 assists.
5. Samuel Lino (Flamengo) — 11 goals, 9 assists.
6. Carlos Vinícius (Gremio) — 11 goals, 1 assist.
7. Luciano Juba (Bahia) — 11 goals, 1 assist.
8. Danilo Santos (Botafogo) — 10 goals, 2 assists.
9. Rene (Vitoria) — 10 goals, 1 assist.
10. J. Calleri (Sao Paulo) — 10 goals, 2 assists.
11. Matheus Pereira (Cruzeiro) — 9 goals, 7 assists.
12. J. López (Palmeiras) — 9 goals, 6 assists.
13. Jája Silva (Remo) — 9 goals, 1 assist.
14. John Kennedy (Fluminense) — 9 goals, 1 assist.
15. Maurício (Palmeiras) — 9 goals, 1 assist.
16. Luciano (Sao Paulo) — 9 goals, 1 assist.
17. Pedro Rocha (Coritiba) — 8 goals, 1 assist.
18. Breno Lopes (Coritiba) — 8 goals, 1 assist.
19. Neymar (Santos) — 8 goals, 3 assists.
20. J. Carbonero (Internacional) — 7 goals, 4 assists.