Valencia
vs
Real Madrid
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Valencia 0–1 Real Madrid
The model makes it 18% Valencia, 25% draw, 57% Real Madrid — fair odds of 5.56, 4.00 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (12%).
Expected goals: Valencia 0.84, Real Madrid 1.92.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,485 settled matches.
One-sided: Real Madrid are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Valencia's rating is built from 47 La Liga matches and Real Madrid's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 850 matches.
Key facts
- Valencia are 19th on 6 points from 9 games; Real Madrid are 3rd on 21 points from 9 games — La Liga.
- Valencia are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Athletic Club.
- Real Madrid have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Sevilla.
- Last 6 meetings: Real Madrid 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 February 2026, ended Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Valencia vs Real Madrid
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Madrid at 57% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Valencia vs Real Madrid
Valencia
La Liga
- D0-0Athletic Club17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Racing Santander11 October 2026
- L2-3Real Sociedad20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Alaves15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sevilla11 September 2026
Real Madrid
La Liga
- W4-1Sevilla18 October 2026
- W1-0Villarreal10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Madrid20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Elche15 September 2026
- W4-1Rayo Vallecano12 September 2026
What these results say
- Valencia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Madrid scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Madrid won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Madrid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs Valencia
Real Madrid and Valencia have met 6 times in the records we hold, Real Madrid has won 4 of them to Valencia's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Real Madrid won the last one 2–0 on 8 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 6 |
| Valencia | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 22 goals, an average of 3.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 8 Feb 2026
La LigaValencia 0–2 Real Madrid - 1 Nov 2025
La LigaReal Madrid 4–0 Valencia - 5 Apr 2025
La LigaReal Madrid 1–2 Valencia - 3 Jan 2025
La LigaValencia 1–2 Real Madrid - 2 Mar 2024
La LigaValencia 2–2 Real Madrid - 11 Nov 2023
La LigaReal Madrid 5–1 Valencia
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 1.57 | 0.67 |
| Valencia | 0.77 | 0.99 |
Leading scorers: Valencia and Real Madrid
Valencia
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Real Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Kylian Mbappé92
- J. Bellingham33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Valencia carry a model rating of 6.73 against 7.28 for Real Madrid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.84 goals for Valencia and 1.92 for Real Madrid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Valencia rate 0.77 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Madrid rate 1.57 and 0.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Valencia a 0% chance of the title and Real Madrid 20.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,189 correct results out of 4,550 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Madrid the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Valencia against 1.92 for Real Madrid. Valencia's attack/defence rating is 0.77/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.57/0.67 for Real Madrid.
How the model reaches 57% for Real Madrid to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Real Madrid to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Valencia's ratings add 6 points and Real Madrid's ratings add 22 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Valencia's ratings35%+6
- Real Madrid's ratings57%+22
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Valencia at home · Real Madrid away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ValenciaReal Madrid
Valencia are 19th after 9 La Liga matches (between 11th and 20th so far); Real Madrid are 3rd after 9 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Valencia 9, Real Madrid 9.
Real Madrid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Valencia have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Valencia
- at Rayo Vallecano22 Nov · La Ligawin 25%
- vs Osasuna29 Nov · La Ligawin 44%
- at Getafe6 Dec · La Ligawin 28%
Real Madrid
- vs Celta Vigo22 Nov · La Ligawin 63%
- vs PSV Eindhoven24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.