Panathinaikos
vs
OFI
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Panathinaikos 2–0 OFI
The model makes it 66% Panathinaikos, 21% draw, 13% OFI — fair odds of 1.52, 4.76 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Panathinaikos 2.19, OFI 0.70.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Panathinaikos are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Panathinaikos's rating is built from 42 Greek Super League matches and OFI's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 541 matches.
Key facts
- Panathinaikos are top on 27 points from 10 games; OFI are 6th on 17 points from 10 games — Super League 1.
- Panathinaikos are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Iraklis 1908.
- OFI are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Atromitos.
- Last 6 meetings: Panathinaikos 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 March 2026, ended Panathinaikos 4–1 OFI.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Panathinaikos vs OFI
Has the model earned this number?
Panathinaikos at 66%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Panathinaikos vs OFI
Panathinaikos
Super League 1
- W2-1away to Iraklis 19088 November 2026
- W2-0AEK Athens FC1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Volos NFC25 October 2026
- W5-1Asteras Tripolis18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus11 October 2026
OFI
Super League 1
- D0-0Atromitos8 November 2026
- W1-0away to Panetolikos1 November 2026
- W2-1PAOK25 October 2026
- L3-4away to Kalamata18 October 2026
- L0-3away to AEK Athens FC10 October 2026
What these results say
- Panathinaikos won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Panathinaikos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 27 |
| 6 | OFI | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Panathinaikos
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 62% today
OFI
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
From our Super League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: OFI vs Panathinaikos
OFI and Panathinaikos have met 6 times in the records we hold, Panathinaikos has won 5 of them to OFI's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
Panathinaikos won the last one 4–1 on 4 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFI | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
| Panathinaikos | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 5 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 4 Mar 2026
Super League 1Panathinaikos 4–1 OFI - 22 Feb 2026
Super League 1OFI 0–2 Panathinaikos - 1 Feb 2025
Super League 1Panathinaikos 3–2 OFI - 20 Oct 2024
Super League 1OFI 0–1 Panathinaikos - 3 Mar 2024
Super League 1OFI 2–2 Panathinaikos - 3 Dec 2023
Super League 1Panathinaikos 4–0 OFI
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Panathinaikos' attack rates 43% above OFI's, and Panathinaikos concede 44% fewer than OFI. That gives Panathinaikos the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| OFI | 0.79 | 1.31 |
| Panathinaikos | 1.13 | 0.74 |
Leading scorers: Panathinaikos and OFI
Panathinaikos
GoalsAssists
- A. Tetteh51
- C. Dessers40
- V. Taborda31
OFI
GoalsAssists
- K. Kodro40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Panathinaikos a 62% chance of the title and OFI 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Panathinaikos the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Panathinaikos against 0.70 for OFI. Panathinaikos's attack/defence rating is 1.13/0.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.31 for OFI.
How the model reaches 66% for Panathinaikos to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Panathinaikos to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Panathinaikos's ratings add 11 points and OFI's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 66%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Panathinaikos's ratings52%+11
- OFI's ratings66%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Panathinaikos at home · OFI away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
PanathinaikosOFI
Panathinaikos are 1st after 10 Super League 1 matches (between 1st and 6th so far); OFI are 6th after 10 (between 2nd and 6th). Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Panathinaikos 10, OFI 10.
OFI score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Panathinaikos have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Panathinaikos
- at FC Nordsjaelland26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 45%
- at Atromitos29 Nov · Super League 1win 53%
- vs Aris Thessalonikis6 Dec · Super League 1win 65%
- at SC Freiburg10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%
- at PAOK13 Dec · Super League 1win 38%
OFI
- vs Anderlecht26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 31%
- vs Levadiakos29 Nov · Super League 1win 44%
- vs Iraklis 19086 Dec · Super League 1win 42%
- at Benfica10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 7%
- at Kifisia14 Dec · Super League 1win 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.