Kalamata
vs
AEK Athens FC
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Kalamata 0–2 AEK Athens FC
The model makes it 16% Kalamata, 21% draw, 63% AEK Athens FC — fair odds of 6.25, 4.76 and 1.59.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Kalamata 0.93, AEK Athens FC 2.37.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: AEK Athens FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Kalamata's rating is built from 10 Greek Super League matches and AEK Athens FC's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 541 matches.
Key facts
- Kalamata are 8th on 12 points from 10 games; AEK Athens FC are 3rd on 20 points from 9 games — Super League 1.
- Kalamata are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Asteras Tripolis.
- AEK Athens FC have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Levadiakos.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kalamata vs AEK Athens FC
Has the model earned this number?
AEK Athens FC at 63%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kalamata vs AEK Athens FC
Kalamata
Super League 1
- D1-1away to Asteras Tripolis8 November 2026
- D1-1Iraklis 19082 November 2026
- L0-5away to Olympiakos Piraeus25 October 2026
- W4-3OFI18 October 2026
- W3-1away to PAOK12 October 2026
AEK Athens FC
Super League 1
- W2-1Levadiakos8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Panathinaikos1 November 2026
- W5-0Panetolikos24 October 2026
- W3-0OFI10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Volos NFC20 September 2026
What these results say
- Kalamata conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kalamata scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Kalamata.
- AEK Athens FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- AEK Athens FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for AEK Athens FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kalamata | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 12 |
| 3 | AEK Athens FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kalamata
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
AEK Athens FC
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 21% today
From our Super League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Kalamata vs AEK Athens FC
- 22 December 2011Kalamata 0–1 AEK Athens FCCup
Leading scorers: Kalamata and AEK Athens FC
Kalamata
GoalsAssists
- D. Kurminowski50
- J. Bolívar30
AEK Athens FC
GoalsAssists
- B. Varga60
- L. Jović50
- Zini30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kalamata a 0% chance of the title and AEK Athens FC 21%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Kalamata v AEK Athens FC has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 15% / 20% / 65% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 16% / 21% / 63%: the biggest move is AEK Athens FC's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Kalamata win16%▲ +1
- Draw21%▲ +1
- AEK Athens FC win63%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Kalamata against 2.37 for AEK Athens FC. Kalamata's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.24/0.74 for AEK Athens FC.
How the model reaches 63% for AEK Athens FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AEK Athens FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Kalamata's ratings add 17 points and AEK Athens FC's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 63%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Kalamata's ratings48%+17
- AEK Athens FC's ratings63%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Kalamata at home · AEK Athens FC away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
KalamataAEK Athens FC
Kalamata are 8th after 10 Super League 1 matches (between 5th and 12th so far); AEK Athens FC are 3rd after 9 (between 1st and 5th). Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Kalamata 10, AEK Athens FC 9.
Kalamata score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); AEK Athens FC have let in 1 there.
AEK Athens FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Kalamata have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kalamata
- at Kifisia28 Nov · Super League 1win 30%
- vs Levadiakos6 Dec · Super League 1win 42%
- vs Panetolikos12 Dec · Super League 1win 53%
- at OFI20 Dec · Super League 1win 28%
- vs Olympiakos Piraeus9 Jan · Super League 1win 18%
AEK Athens FC
- at Como24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 11%
- vs PAOK29 Nov · Super League 1win 53%
- at Olympiakos Piraeus5 Dec · Super League 1win 33%
- vs Galatasaray8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 54%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.