PAOK
vs
Kifisia
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: PAOK 2–0 Kifisia
The model makes it 62% PAOK, 22% draw, 16% Kifisia — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: PAOK 2.29, Kifisia 0.93.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: PAOK are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. PAOK's rating is built from 42 Greek Super League matches and Kifisia's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 541 matches.
Key facts
- PAOK are 4th on 19 points from 10 games; Kifisia are 7th on 14 points from 10 games — Super League 1.
- PAOK have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Olympiakos Piraeus.
- Kifisia have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Volos NFC.
- Last 4 meetings: PAOK 4 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 March 2026, ended Kifisia 1–4 PAOK.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: PAOK vs Kifisia
Has the model earned this number?
PAOK at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into PAOK vs Kifisia
PAOK
Super League 1
- D1-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus8 November 2026
- W2-1Asteras Tripolis1 November 2026
- L1-2away to OFI25 October 2026
- W2-1Iraklis 190818 October 2026
- L1-3Kalamata12 October 2026
Kifisia
Super League 1
- W3-1away to Volos NFC7 November 2026
- L2-3Olympiakos Piraeus31 October 2026
- W3-2away to Iraklis 190824 October 2026
- L1-2Aris Thessalonikis18 October 2026
- W2-0Panetolikos11 October 2026
What these results say
- PAOK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PAOK conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for PAOK.
- Kifisia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kifisia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kifisia had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | PAOK | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 19 |
| 7 | Kifisia | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
PAOK
Chance to finish in the top four · 82% today
Kifisia
Chance to finish in the top four · 3% today
From our Super League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: PAOK vs Kifisia
- 4 March 2026Kifisia 1–4 PAOKSuper League 1
- 23 November 2025PAOK 3–0 KifisiaSuper League 1
- 21 December 2023Kifisia 0–6 PAOKSuper League 1
- 27 August 2023PAOK 2–1 KifisiaSuper League 1
Leading scorers: PAOK and Kifisia
PAOK
GoalsAssists
- C. Ndiaye40
- A. Živković35
- D. Pelkas30
Kifisia
GoalsAssists
- Jorge Pombo42
- Á. Sagal41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives PAOK a 2.4% chance of the title and Kifisia 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PAOK the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.29 expected goals for PAOK against 0.93 for Kifisia. PAOK's attack/defence rating is 1.12/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.38 for Kifisia.
How the model reaches 62% for PAOK to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for PAOK to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, PAOK's ratings add 10 points and Kifisia's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 62%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level42%+1
- PAOK's ratings52%+10
- Kifisia's ratings62%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
PAOK at home · Kifisia away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
PAOKKifisia
PAOK are 4th after 10 Super League 1 matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Kifisia are 7th after 10 (between 6th and 11th). Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: PAOK 10, Kifisia 10.
PAOK score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Kifisia have let in 2 there.
Kifisia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); PAOK have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
PAOK
- at AEK Athens FC29 Nov · Super League 1win 22%
- vs Volos NFC6 Dec · Super League 1win 74%
- vs Panathinaikos13 Dec · Super League 1win 33%
- at Asteras Tripolis19 Dec · Super League 1win 55%
- at Aris Thessalonikis10 Jan · Super League 1win 47%
Kifisia
- vs Kalamata28 Nov · Super League 1win 45%
- at Asteras Tripolis6 Dec · Super League 1win 36%
- vs OFI14 Dec · Super League 1win 40%
- vs Atromitos19 Dec · Super League 1win 40%
- at Panetolikos10 Jan · Super League 1win 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.