Sporting CP
vs
Moreirense
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Sporting CP 2–0 Moreirense
The model makes it 76% Sporting CP, 15% draw, 9% Moreirense — fair odds of 1.32, 6.67 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Sporting CP 2.97, Moreirense 0.73.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,485 settled matches.
One-sided: Sporting CP are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Sporting CP's rating is built from 42 Primeira Liga matches and Moreirense's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 689 matches.
Key facts
- Sporting CP are 3rd on 18 points from 8 games; Moreirense are 12th on 8 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- Sporting CP are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to SC Braga.
- Moreirense have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to GIL Vicente.
- Last 6 meetings: Sporting CP 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Moreirense 0–3 Sporting CP.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sporting CP vs Moreirense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting CP at 76% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 368 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Sporting CP vs Moreirense
Sporting CP
Primeira Liga
- W3-1away to SC Braga9 October 2026
- D2-2Arouca19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Famalicao13 September 2026
- W2-0Nacional5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rio Ave28 August 2026
Moreirense
Primeira Liga
- L0-1GIL Vicente9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vitória SC20 September 2026
- W3-1Maritimo14 September 2026
- L0-4Benfica9 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Porto4 September 2026
What these results say
- Sporting CP went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sporting CP scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Moreirense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Moreirense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 18 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Moreirense vs Sporting CP
Moreirense and Sporting CP have met 6 times in the records we hold, Sporting CP has won 5 of them to Moreirense's 1.
The record
Sporting CP won the last one 3–0 on 21 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| Sporting CP | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 3 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 21 Feb 2026
Primeira LigaMoreirense 0–3 Sporting CP - 22 Sep 2025
Primeira LigaSporting CP 3–0 Moreirense - 18 Apr 2025
Primeira LigaSporting CP 3–1 Moreirense - 5 Dec 2024
Primeira LigaMoreirense 2–1 Sporting CP - 19 Feb 2024
Primeira LigaMoreirense 0–2 Sporting CP - 17 Sep 2023
Primeira LigaSporting CP 3–0 Moreirense
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 0.73 | 1.21 |
| Sporting CP | 1.62 | 0.79 |
Leading scorers: Sporting CP and Moreirense
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez71
- Flávio Gonçalves31
Moreirense
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Sporting CP carry a model rating of 7.22 against 6.6 for Moreirense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.97 goals for Sporting CP and 0.73 for Moreirense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting CP rate 1.62 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Moreirense rate 0.73 and 1.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sporting CP a 16.5% chance of the title and Moreirense 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,189 correct results out of 4,550 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting CP the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.97 expected goals for Sporting CP against 0.73 for Moreirense. Sporting CP's attack/defence rating is 1.62/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.21 for Moreirense.
How the model reaches 76% for Sporting CP to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sporting CP to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Sporting CP's ratings add 22 points and Moreirense's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 76%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Sporting CP's ratings63%+22
- Moreirense's ratings76%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sporting CP at home · Moreirense away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Sporting CP 8, Moreirense 8.
Moreirense score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Sporting CP have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sporting CP
- vs Manchester United25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 58%
- at FC Porto29 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 28%
Moreirense
- vs Santa Clara28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 27%
- at Alverca6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 24%
- vs Famalicao13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.