Alverca
vs
Casa Pia
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Alverca 1–0 Casa Pia
The model makes it 57% Alverca, 25% draw, 18% Casa Pia — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Alverca 1.80, Casa Pia 0.78.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Alverca are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Alverca's rating is built from 42 Primeira Liga matches and Casa Pia's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 689 matches.
Key facts
- Alverca are 8th on 11 points from 8 games; Casa Pia are 17th on 4 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- Alverca are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Famalicao.
- Casa Pia have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Santa Clara.
- Last 3 meetings: Alverca 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alverca vs Casa Pia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alverca at 57% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Alverca vs Casa Pia
Alverca
Primeira Liga
- W4-1away to Famalicao12 October 2026
- W1-0Rio Ave19 September 2026
- W3-1away to Nacional12 September 2026
- L1-2SC Braga5 September 2026
- D1-1Santa Clara29 August 2026
Casa Pia
Primeira Liga
- L0-1Santa Clara10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Estoril20 September 2026
- L1-4FC Porto12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Vitória SC6 September 2026
- L0-1Moreirense30 August 2026
What these results say
- Alverca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alverca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Alverca.
- Casa Pia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Casa Pia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Alverca vs Casa Pia
- 12 April 2026Alverca 3–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 29 November 2025Casa Pia 0–2 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 2 August 2025Alverca 2–3 Casa PiaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Alverca and Casa Pia
Alverca
GoalsAssists
- Vivaldo Semedo30
- D. Camara30
Casa Pia
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Alverca carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.45 for Casa Pia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Alverca and 0.78 for Casa Pia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alverca rate 0.93 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Casa Pia rate 0.56 and 1.28.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alverca the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Alverca against 0.78 for Casa Pia. Alverca's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.28 for Casa Pia.
How the model reaches 57% for Alverca to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Alverca to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Alverca's ratings take away 4 points and Casa Pia's ratings add 20 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Alverca's ratings37%−4
- Casa Pia's ratings57%+20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Alverca at home · Casa Pia away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Alverca 8, Casa Pia 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Alverca
- at Academico Viseu28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 29%
- vs Moreirense6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 50%
- at Vitória SC13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 32%
Casa Pia
- vs SC Braga30 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 18%
- at Rio Ave6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 26%
- vs Nacional13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.