Pumas UNAM
vs
Monterrey
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Pumas UNAM 2–1 Monterrey
The model makes it 49% Pumas UNAM, 24% draw, 27% Monterrey — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Pumas UNAM 2.01, Monterrey 1.38.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Pumas UNAM are 11th on 21 points from 16 games; Monterrey are 10th on 21 points from 15 games — Liga MX.
- Pumas UNAM are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Club America.
- Monterrey are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Toluca.
- Last 6 meetings: Monterrey 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended Pumas UNAM 2–0 Monterrey.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pumas UNAM vs Monterrey
Has the model earned this number?
Pumas UNAM at 49%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Pumas UNAM vs Monterrey
Pumas UNAM
Liga MX
- D2-2Club America8 November 2026
- W2-1away to Puebla31 October 2026
- D1-1Tigres UANL25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Santos Laguna22 October 2026
- W2-1away to Atlante FC17 October 2026
Monterrey
Liga MX
- L0-4away to Toluca8 November 2026
- D3-3Club Tijuana1 November 2026
- L0-1Guadalajara Chivas25 October 2026
- W4-1away to Puebla22 October 2026
- W2-1CF Pachuca19 October 2026
What these results say
- Pumas UNAM conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Pumas UNAM.
- Monterrey conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Monterrey had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 21 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 25 | +1 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Pumas UNAM
Chance to finish in the top eight
Monterrey
Chance to finish in the top eight · 32% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Monterrey vs Pumas UNAM
Monterrey and Pumas UNAM have met 6 times in the records we hold, Monterrey has won 4 of them to Pumas UNAM's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Pumas UNAM won the last one 2–0 on 22 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 |
| Pumas UNAM | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 3.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 22 Feb 2026
Liga MXPumas UNAM 2–0 Monterrey - 19 Oct 2025
Liga MXMonterrey 1–1 Pumas UNAM - 5 May 2025
Liga MXMonterrey 2–0 Pumas UNAM - 17 Mar 2025
Liga MXPumas UNAM 1–3 Monterrey - 1 Dec 2024
Liga MXPumas UNAM 3–5 Monterrey - 29 Nov 2024
Liga MXMonterrey 1–0 Pumas UNAM
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and Pumas UNAM concede 9% fewer than Monterrey. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Monterrey | 0.82 | 1.42 |
| Pumas UNAM | 0.82 | 1.29 |
Leading scorers: Pumas UNAM and Monterrey
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho91
- R. Morales54
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos73
- H. Cuypers61
- D. Rossi53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Monterrey (10th, with Pumas UNAM 11th), while our numbers lean to Pumas UNAM. Pumas UNAM rate 0.82 in attack and 1.29 in defence, Monterrey 0.82 and 1.42 (lower is better in defence), so Pumas UNAM have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pumas UNAM the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Pumas UNAM against 1.38 for Monterrey. Pumas UNAM's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.42 for Monterrey.
How the model reaches 49% for Pumas UNAM to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Pumas UNAM to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Pumas UNAM's ratings add 1 point and Monterrey's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Both sides at this match's level46%+1
- Pumas UNAM's ratings47%+1
- Monterrey's ratings49%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Pumas UNAM at home · Monterrey away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Pumas UNAMMonterrey
Pumas UNAM are 11th after 16 Liga MX matches (between 2nd and 18th so far); Monterrey are 10th after 15 (between 1st and 11th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Pumas UNAM 16, Monterrey 15.
Pumas UNAM score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Monterrey have let in 6 there.
Monterrey score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); Pumas UNAM have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.