Southampton
vs
Middlesbrough
Championship prediction
Our model says: Southampton 1–0 Middlesbrough
The model makes it 46% Southampton, 27% draw, 27% Middlesbrough — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Southampton 1.62, Middlesbrough 1.11.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Southampton's rating is built from 63 Championship matches and Middlesbrough's from 64, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Southampton are 7th on 24 points from 15 games; Middlesbrough are 2nd on 29 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Southampton have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Preston.
- Middlesbrough have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Watford.
- Last 6 meetings: Middlesbrough 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 12 May 2026, ended Southampton 2–1 Middlesbrough.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Southampton vs Middlesbrough
Has the model earned this number?
Southampton at 46%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Southampton vs Middlesbrough
Southampton
Championship
- L0-1away to Preston7 November 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom3 November 2026
- W4-1QPR31 October 2026
- W3-2away to West Ham24 October 2026
- D0-0Bolton17 October 2026
Middlesbrough
Championship
- D0-0away to Watford7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Wrexham4 November 2026
- W3-0Charlton31 October 2026
- W5-1away to Bolton23 October 2026
- D2-2Cardiff17 October 2026
What these results say
- Southampton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Middlesbrough vs Southampton
Middlesbrough and Southampton have met 6 times in the records we hold, Middlesbrough has won 2 of them to Southampton's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
Southampton won the last one 2–1 on 12 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 5 |
| Southampton | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 12 May 2026
ChampionshipSouthampton 2–1 Middlesbrough - 9 May 2026
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 0–0 Southampton - 4 Jan 2026
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 4–0 Southampton - 27 Sep 2025
ChampionshipSouthampton 1–1 Middlesbrough - 29 Mar 2024
ChampionshipSouthampton 1–1 Middlesbrough - 23 Sep 2023
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 2–1 Southampton
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Southampton's attack rates 4% above Middlesbrough's, and Southampton concede 9% fewer than Middlesbrough. That gives Southampton the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 0.89 | 1.14 |
| Southampton | 0.93 | 1.04 |
Leading scorers: Southampton and Middlesbrough
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear130
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Middlesbrough (second, with Southampton seventh), while our numbers lean to Southampton. Southampton rate 0.93 in attack and 1.04 in defence, Middlesbrough 0.89 and 1.14 (lower is better in defence), so Southampton have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Southampton a 18.7% chance of the title and Middlesbrough 21.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Southampton the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Southampton against 1.11 for Middlesbrough. Southampton's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.14 for Middlesbrough.
How the model reaches 46% for Southampton to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Southampton to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Southampton's ratings add 2 points and Middlesbrough's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Southampton's ratings44%+2
- Middlesbrough's ratings46%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Southampton at home · Middlesbrough away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SouthamptonMiddlesbrough
Southampton are 7th after 15 Championship matches (between 2nd and 24th so far); Middlesbrough are 2nd after 15 (between 1st and 10th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Southampton 15, Middlesbrough 15.
Southampton score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Middlesbrough have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Southampton
- at Wolves5 Dec · Championshipwin 35%
- vs Burnley9 Dec · Championshipwin 65%
- at Cardiff12 Dec · Championshipwin 44%
Middlesbrough
- vs Derby5 Dec · Championshipwin 61%
- at West Ham8 Dec · Championshipwin 32%
- at Preston12 Dec · Championshipwin 52%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.