RB Leipzig
vs
Manchester City
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: RB Leipzig 1–2 Manchester City
The model makes it 33% RB Leipzig, 24% draw, 43% Manchester City — fair odds of 3.03, 4.17 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: RB Leipzig 1.74, Manchester City 2.06.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,028 settled matches.
Edge to Manchester City: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. RB Leipzig's rating is built from 40 Bundesliga matches and Manchester City's from 45 Premier League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 695 matches.
Key facts
- RB Leipzig are 23rd on 3 points from 2 games; Manchester City are 6th on 6 points from 3 games — UEFA Champions League.
- RB Leipzig have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to Bayern München.
- Manchester City have won 2 of their last 3 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to AEK Athens FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Manchester City 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 November 2023, ended Manchester City 3–2 RB Leipzig.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: RB Leipzig vs Manchester City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manchester City at 43% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 2,030 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into RB Leipzig vs Manchester City
RB Leipzig
- W1-0PSV Eindhoven13 October 2026
- L1-4away to Como10 September 2026
Manchester City
- W5-1AEK Athens FC20 October 2026
- L2-4Paris Saint Germain14 October 2026
- W2-0away to FC Porto8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 6 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Manchester City vs RB Leipzig
Manchester City and RB Leipzig have met 6 times in the records we hold, Manchester City has won 4 of them to RB Leipzig's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Manchester City won the last one 3–2 on 28 Nov 2023.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 9 |
| RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 21 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 30 goals, an average of 5.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 28 Nov 2023
UEFA Champions LeagueManchester City 3–2 RB Leipzig - 4 Oct 2023
UEFA Champions LeagueRB Leipzig 1–3 Manchester City - 14 Mar 2023
UEFA Champions LeagueManchester City 7–0 RB Leipzig - 22 Feb 2023
UEFA Champions LeagueRB Leipzig 1–1 Manchester City - 7 Dec 2021
UEFA Champions LeagueRB Leipzig 2–1 Manchester City - 15 Sep 2021
UEFA Champions LeagueManchester City 6–3 RB Leipzig
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 1.65 | 0.67 |
| RB Leipzig | 1.33 | 0.89 |
Leading scorers: RB Leipzig and Manchester City
RB Leipzig
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Manchester City
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland40
- P. Foden31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
RB Leipzig carry a model rating of 7.05 against 7.3 for Manchester City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for RB Leipzig and 2.06 for Manchester City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
RB Leipzig rate 1.33 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Manchester City rate 1.65 and 0.67.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manchester City the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for RB Leipzig against 2.06 for Manchester City. RB Leipzig's attack/defence rating is 1.33/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.65/0.67 for Manchester City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
RB Leipzig at home · Manchester City away
League matches only, this season — RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga, Manchester City in the Premier League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: RB Leipzig 6 in the Bundesliga, Manchester City 7 in the Premier League.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
RB Leipzig
- vs FC Augsburg7 Nov · Bundesligawin 56%
- at Union Berlin21 Nov · Bundesligawin 57%
Manchester City
- at Nottingham Forest7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 57%
- vs Fulham21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 67%
- vs Napoli24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.