Union Berlin
vs
1. FC Köln
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Union Berlin 2–1 1. FC Köln
The model makes it 39% Union Berlin, 27% draw, 34% 1. FC Köln — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Union Berlin 1.52, 1. FC Köln 1.39.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Union Berlin are 16th on 5 points from 6 games; 1. FC Köln are 12th on 7 points from 6 games — Bundesliga.
- Union Berlin have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Borussia Dortmund.
- 1. FC Köln have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Eintracht Frankfurt.
- Last 6 meetings: Union Berlin 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Union Berlin 2–2 1. FC Köln.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union Berlin at 39% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln
Union Berlin
- D0-0Borussia Dortmund17 October 2026
- W1-0SV Elversberg10 October 2026
- L0-7away to Bayern München18 September 2026
- L1-3FC Schalke 0411 September 2026
- L0-4away to Bayer Leverkusen5 September 2026
1. FC Köln
- L0-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt16 October 2026
- W2-1Borussia Mönchengladbach11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hamburger SV19 September 2026
- D1-1Werder Bremen12 September 2026
- L1-4away to VfB Stuttgart4 September 2026
What these results say
- Union Berlin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Köln conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Köln failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Köln scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Union Berlin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln
- 2 May 2026Union Berlin 2–2 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 20 December 20251. FC Köln 0–1 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 11 May 20241. FC Köln 3–2 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 20 December 2023Union Berlin 2–0 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 4 March 2023Union Berlin 0–0 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 11 September 20221. FC Köln 0–1 Union BerlinBundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Union Berlin carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.68 for 1. FC Köln. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Union Berlin and 1.39 for 1. FC Köln. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union Berlin rate 0.74 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Köln rate 0.80 and 1.12.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour 1. FC Köln, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union Berlin the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Union Berlin against 1.39 for 1. FC Köln. Union Berlin's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.12 for 1. FC Köln.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Union Berlin at home · 1. FC Köln away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Union Berlin1. FC Köln
Union Berlin are 16th after 6 Bundesliga matches (between 6th and 16th so far); 1. FC Köln are 11th after 6 (between 2nd and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Union Berlin 6, 1. FC Köln 6.
Union Berlin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); 1. FC Köln have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Union Berlin
- at SC Freiburg8 Nov · Bundesligawin 16%
- vs RB Leipzig21 Nov · Bundesligawin 21%
- at FSV Mainz 0528 Nov · Bundesligawin 22%
- vs Hamburger SV5 Dec · Bundesligawin 39%
1. FC Köln
- vs Bayer Leverkusen8 Nov · Bundesligawin 20%
- at Bayern München20 Nov · Bundesligawin 7%
- vs SV Elversberg28 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
- at FC Augsburg5 Dec · Bundesligawin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.