Union St. Gilloise
vs
Gent
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Union St. Gilloise 1–0 Gent
The model makes it 49% Union St. Gilloise, 29% draw, 22% Gent — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Union St. Gilloise 1.46, Gent 0.79.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.
Edge to Union St. Gilloise: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Union St. Gilloise's rating is built from 51 Jupiler Pro League matches and Gent's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 735 matches.
Key facts
- Union St. Gilloise are top on 29 points from 11 games; Gent are 3rd on 28 points from 11 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Genk.
- Gent have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Kortrijk.
- Last 6 meetings: Union St. Gilloise 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 21 May 2026, ended Gent 0–0 Union St. Gilloise.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Union St. Gilloise vs Gent
Has the model earned this number?
Union St. Gilloise at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Gent
Union St. Gilloise
Jupiler Pro League
- W1-0Genk8 November 2026
- W2-1away to SK Beveren31 October 2026
- W5-2Cercle Brugge25 October 2026
- D1-1OH Leuven11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Antwerp20 September 2026
Gent
Jupiler Pro League
- W1-0Kortrijk8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Lommel United1 November 2026
- W4-0Anderlecht25 October 2026
- W2-0away to Zulte Waregem10 October 2026
- W2-1Standard Liege18 September 2026
What these results say
- Union St. Gilloise went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gent won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gent scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union St. Gilloise | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 7 | +23 | 29 |
| 3 | Gent | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gent vs Union St. Gilloise
Gent and Union St. Gilloise have met 6 times in the records we hold, Union St. Gilloise has won 3 of them to Gent's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at Gent on 21 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 21 May 2026
Jupiler Pro LeagueGent 0–0 Union St. Gilloise - 22 Apr 2026
Jupiler Pro LeagueUnion St. Gilloise 0–0 Gent - 6 Dec 2025
Jupiler Pro LeagueUnion St. Gilloise 1–1 Gent - 9 Aug 2025
Jupiler Pro LeagueGent 2–3 Union St. Gilloise - 25 May 2025
Jupiler Pro LeagueUnion St. Gilloise 3–1 Gent - 5 Apr 2025
Jupiler Pro LeagueGent 0–3 Union St. Gilloise
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Union St. Gilloise's attack rates 28% above Gent's, and Union St. Gilloise concede 12% fewer than Gent. That gives Union St. Gilloise the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Gent | 0.94 | 0.74 |
| Union St. Gilloise | 1.20 | 0.65 |
Leading scorers: Union St. Gilloise and Gent
Union St. Gilloise
GoalsAssists
- R. Florucz50
- R. Mofokeng42
Gent
GoalsAssists
- I. Cisse40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Union St. Gilloise a 39.3% chance of the title and Gent 7.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise against 0.79 for Gent. Union St. Gilloise's attack/defence rating is 1.2/0.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.74 for Gent.
How the model reaches 49% for Union St. Gilloise to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Union St. Gilloise to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Union St. Gilloise's ratings add 5 points and Gent's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−3
- Union St. Gilloise's ratings45%+5
- Gent's ratings49%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Union St. Gilloise at home · Gent away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Union St. GilloiseGent
Union St. Gilloise are 1st after 11 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Gent are 3rd after 11 (between 1st and 3rd). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Union St. Gilloise 11, Gent 11.
Union St. Gilloise score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Gent have let in 2 there.
Gent score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Union St. Gilloise have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Union St. Gilloise
- at Lyon10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 41%
- at KV Mechelen13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 58%
- vs Club Brugge KV20 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 41%
Gent
- at FC Thun10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 57%
- vs St. Truiden13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 51%
- vs Brann17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 62%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.