Regular Season - 13 · 29 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

St. Truiden vs Genk Jupiler Pro League prediction

Daio Wasabi Stayen, Sint-Truiden

Our model says: St. Truiden 2–1 Genk

The model makes it 42% St. Truiden, 27% draw, 31% Genk — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: St. Truiden 1.58, Genk 1.26.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. St. Truiden's rating is built from 51 Jupiler Pro League matches and Genk's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 735 matches.

Key facts

St. Truiden are 12th on 11 points from 11 games; Genk are 7th on 15 points from 11 games — Jupiler Pro League.
St. Truiden have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Zulte Waregem.
Genk have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Union St. Gilloise.
Last 6 meetings: Genk 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Genk 1–0 St. Truiden.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: St. Truiden vs Genk

57%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

46%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

St. Truiden win Draw Genk win

1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–27%
2–07%
0–17%
0–06%

Scores read St. Truiden first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

St. Truiden at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into St. Truiden vs Genk

St. Truiden

Jupiler Pro League

W4-1Zulte Waregem8 November 2026
L1-2OH Leuven1 November 2026
L2-3away to Club Brugge KV25 October 2026
L3-4away to KV Mechelen11 October 2026
L0-2KVC Westerlo20 September 2026

Genk

Jupiler Pro League

L0-1away to Union St. Gilloise8 November 2026
L0-1away to KV Mechelen31 October 2026
W2-1Standard Liege25 October 2026
W3-0Kortrijk10 October 2026
L0-3away to Club Brugge KV20 September 2026

What these results say

St. Truiden conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
St. Truiden failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
St. Truiden scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Genk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
12	St. Truiden	11	3	2	6	22	22	0	11
7	Genk	11	4	3	4	18	15	+3	15

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Genk

Chance to finish in the top four · 7% today

Win 11%

Draw 6%

Defeat 5%

From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: St. Truiden vs Genk

15 March 2026Genk 1–0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
28 September 2025St. Truiden 1–2 GenkJupiler Pro League
7 January 2025St. Truiden 0–4 GenkCup
1 December 2024St. Truiden 2–2 GenkJupiler Pro League
20 October 2024Genk 3–2 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
28 January 2024St. Truiden 1–1 GenkJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: St. Truiden and Genk

St. Truiden

GoalsAssists

S. Baždar50
I. Sebaoui43

Genk

GoalsAssists

R. Durosinmi60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Genk (7th, with St. Truiden 12th), while our numbers lean to St. Truiden. St. Truiden rate 1.04 in attack and 1.13 in defence, Genk 0.86 and 0.92 (lower is better in defence), so St. Truiden have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 4-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

St. Truiden Genk

1.04 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.86

1.13 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.92

1.58 Model expected goals (this match) 1.26

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives St. Truiden the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for St. Truiden against 1.26 for Genk. St. Truiden's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/0.92 for Genk.

St. Truiden carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.82 for Genk. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 42% for St. Truiden to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for St. Truiden to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, St. Truiden's ratings change nothing and Genk's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage43%+6
St. Truiden's ratings43%±0
Genk's ratings42%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

St. TruidenModelGenk

Over 1.5 goals

100%

10 of 10 games

78%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

54%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

32%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

57%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

St. TruidenGenk

11Matches11

3W 2D 6LRecord4W 3D 4L

22 2.0 per gameGoals scored18 1.6 per game

22 2.0 per gameGoals conceded15 1.4 per game

1 of 11Clean sheets3 of 11

3 of 11Failed to score4 of 11

2 of 4Penalties scored2 of 2

20 1.8 per gameYellow cards23 2.1 per game

1Red cards1

St. Truiden at home · Genk away

6Played6

2W 1D 3LRecord0W 2D 4L

10–9Goals for – against5–11

1 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

St. TruidenGenk

St. Truiden are 12th after 11 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 5th and 15th so far); Genk are 7th after 11 (between 4th and 14th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: St. Truiden 11, Genk 11.

St. Truiden scored 414565

Genk conceded 420126

St. Truiden score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Genk have let in 2 there.

Genk scored 325332

St. Truiden conceded 134632

Genk score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); St. Truiden have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

St. Truiden

vs Ajax10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 35%
at Gent13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 23%
at FC Lugano17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%

Genk

vs OH Leuven11 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 48%
at Charleroi19 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 27%
vs Lommel United27 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 39%
at Cercle Brugge17 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 33%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.