Regular Season - 13 · 29 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Antwerp vs Anderlecht Jupiler Pro League prediction

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Our model says: Antwerp 1–2 Anderlecht

The model makes it 33% Antwerp, 28% draw, 39% Anderlecht — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Antwerp 1.32, Anderlecht 1.48.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

Edge to Anderlecht: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Antwerp's rating is built from 51 Jupiler Pro League matches and Anderlecht's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 735 matches.

Key facts

Antwerp are 13th on 11 points from 11 games; Anderlecht are 5th on 20 points from 11 games — Jupiler Pro League.
Antwerp have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Lommel United.
Anderlecht have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Club Brugge KV.
Last 6 meetings: Anderlecht 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 12 February 2026, ended Antwerp 0–4 Anderlecht.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Antwerp vs Anderlecht

57%

Both teams to score

53%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Antwerp win Draw Anderlecht win

1–112%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–07%
0–27%

Scores read Antwerp first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Anderlecht at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Antwerp vs Anderlecht

Antwerp

Jupiler Pro League

D2-2Lommel United7 November 2026
L1-2away to Cercle Brugge1 November 2026
W3-0Charleroi24 October 2026
L1-5away to KVC Westerlo11 October 2026
L0-2Union St. Gilloise20 September 2026

Anderlecht

Jupiler Pro League

D1-1away to Club Brugge KV8 November 2026
W4-1KVC Westerlo31 October 2026
L0-4away to Gent25 October 2026
W2-1away to Cercle Brugge10 October 2026
W3-0Zulte Waregem19 September 2026

What these results say

Antwerp failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Antwerp scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Antwerp conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Anderlecht scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Anderlecht conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Anderlecht had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
13	Antwerp	11	3	2	6	18	24	-6	11
5	Anderlecht	11	6	2	3	14	12	+2	20

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Antwerp vs Anderlecht

12 February 2026Antwerp 0–4 AnderlechtCup
5 February 2026Anderlecht 0–1 AntwerpCup
21 December 2025Antwerp 2–2 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
20 September 2025Anderlecht 0–0 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
1 May 2025Antwerp 1–3 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
20 April 2025Anderlecht 0–0 AntwerpJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Antwerp and Anderlecht

Antwerp

GoalsAssists

M. Frey40
S. Porozo40

Anderlecht

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Antwerp a 0% chance of the title and Anderlecht 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Antwerp Anderlecht

0.82 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.94

1.22 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.98

1.32 Model expected goals (this match) 1.48

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Anderlecht the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Antwerp against 1.48 for Anderlecht. Antwerp's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.98 for Anderlecht.

Antwerp carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.83 for Anderlecht.

How the model reaches 39% for Anderlecht to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Anderlecht to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Antwerp's ratings add 5 points and Anderlecht's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 39%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage30%−6
Antwerp's ratings35%+5
Anderlecht's ratings39%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

AntwerpModelAnderlecht

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

77%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

53%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

31%

model, this match

20%

2 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

57%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

AntwerpAnderlecht

11Matches11

3W 2D 6LRecord6W 2D 3L

18 1.6 per gameGoals scored14 1.3 per game

24 2.2 per gameGoals conceded12 1.1 per game

2 of 11Clean sheets4 of 11

2 of 11Failed to score4 of 11

2 of 2Penalties scored–

25 2.3 per gameYellow cards28 2.5 per game

2Red cards0

4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape4-4-2 6×

Antwerp at home · Anderlecht away

6Played6

2W 2D 2LRecord2W 1D 3L

12–13Goals for – against4–10

1 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

AntwerpAnderlecht

Antwerp are 13th after 11 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 1st and 13th so far); Anderlecht are 5th after 11 (between 5th and 11th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Antwerp 11, Anderlecht 11.

Antwerp scored 142326

Anderlecht conceded 303114

Antwerp score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Anderlecht have let in 4 there.

Anderlecht scored 006413

Antwerp conceded 212757

Anderlecht score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Antwerp have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Antwerp

at RAAL La Louvière12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 36%
vs OH Leuven18 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 41%
at Gent27 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 17%
vs KV Mechelen16 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 45%

Anderlecht

vs 1899 Hoffenheim10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 44%
vs Charleroi13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 40%
at Standard Liege20 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 34%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.