Regular Season - 12 · 23 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

Monza vs Fiorentina Serie A prediction

Monza

Our model says: Monza 1–2 Fiorentina

The model makes it 30% Monza, 24% draw, 46% Fiorentina — fair odds of 3.33, 4.17 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Monza 1.57, Fiorentina 2.05.

Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.

Edge to Fiorentina: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 9 November 2026 · updated 10 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Monza's rating is built from 11 Serie A matches and Fiorentina's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.

Key facts

Monza are 18th on 7 points from 11 games; Fiorentina are 15th on 9 points from 11 games — Serie A.
Monza are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Atalanta.
Fiorentina are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Juventus.
Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 January 2025, ended Monza 2–1 Fiorentina.

More Serie A predictions

All Serie A predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Monza vs Fiorentina

69%

Both teams to score

70%

Over 2.5 goals

30%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Monza win Draw Fiorentina win

1–19%
1–29%
2–27%
2–17%
1–36%
0–26%
0–15%

Scores read Monza first; the other scorelines share the remaining 52%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Fiorentina at 46%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Monza vs Fiorentina

Monza

Serie A

L0-1Atalanta8 November 2026
L1-2away to Bologna31 October 2026
L1-4Napoli28 October 2026
L2-3away to Torino23 October 2026
W4-0Cagliari19 October 2026

Fiorentina

Serie A

D2-2Juventus8 November 2026
W4-2away to Sassuolo2 November 2026
D2-2Atalanta29 October 2026
L1-2away to Inter25 October 2026
L1-3Como18 October 2026

What these results say

Monza failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Monza scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Monza conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Fiorentina scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Fiorentina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Every one of these 5 matches for Fiorentina had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	17	25	-8	7
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	17	25	-8	9

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Monza

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 47% today

Win 38%

Draw 47%

Defeat 53%

Fiorentina

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today

Win 3%

Draw 5%

Defeat 7%

From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Fiorentina vs Monza

Fiorentina and Monza have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.

The record

Monza won the last one 2–1 on 13 Jan 2025.

Club	W	D	L	GF	GA
Fiorentina	2	2	2	9	9
Monza	2	2	2	9	9

Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

13 Jan 2025
Serie AMonza 2–1 Fiorentina
1 Sep 2024
Serie AFiorentina 2–2 Monza
13 May 2024
Serie AFiorentina 2–1 Monza
22 Dec 2023
Serie AMonza 0–1 Fiorentina
23 Apr 2023
Serie AMonza 3–2 Fiorentina
4 Jan 2023
Serie AFiorentina 1–1 Monza

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Fiorentina's attack rates 10% above Monza's, and Fiorentina concede 23% fewer than Monza. That gives Fiorentina the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

Club	Attack	Defence
Fiorentina	1.17	1.05
Monza	1.06	1.36

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Monza and Fiorentina

Monza

GoalsAssists

Gustavo Varela91

Fiorentina

GoalsAssists

Mateo Pellegrino40
Franco Mastantuono40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Monza Fiorentina

1.06 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.17

1.36 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.05

1.57 Model expected goals (this match) 2.05

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Fiorentina the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Monza against 2.05 for Fiorentina. Monza's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/1.05 for Fiorentina.

How the model reaches 46% for Fiorentina to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fiorentina to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Monza's ratings add 6 points and Fiorentina's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 46%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage34%−2
Both sides at this match's level35%+1
Monza's ratings41%+6
Fiorentina's ratings46%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

MonzaModelFiorentina

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

88%

model, this match

100%

10 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

70%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

49%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Both teams score

80%

8 of 10 games

69%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

MonzaFiorentina

11Matches11

2W 1D 8LRecord2W 3D 6L

17 1.5 per gameGoals scored17 1.5 per game

25 2.3 per gameGoals conceded25 2.3 per game

1 of 11Clean sheets0 of 11

1 of 11Failed to score2 of 11

2 of 3Penalties scored–

23 2.1 per gameYellow cards24 2.2 per game

2Red cards0

3-4-2-1 9×Usual shape4-3-3 5×

Monza at home · Fiorentina away

5Played5

2W 0D 3LRecord2W 0D 3L

9–9Goals for – against10–12

1 of 5Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

MonzaFiorentina

Monza are 18th after 11 Serie A matches (between 13th and 20th so far); Fiorentina are 15th after 11 (between 15th and 20th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: Monza 11, Fiorentina 11.

Monza scored 124432

Fiorentina conceded 255365

Fiorentina scored 121632

Monza conceded 525653

Fiorentina score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Monza have let in 6 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Monza

at AS Roma29 Nov · Serie Awin 9%
vs Como6 Dec · Serie Awin 19%
at Juventus13 Dec · Serie Awin 18%
at Venezia20 Dec · Serie Awin 39%
vs AC Milan3 Jan · Serie Awin 20%

Fiorentina

at Udinese29 Nov · Serie Awin 45%
vs Cagliari6 Dec · Serie Awin 46%
at Parma13 Dec · Serie Awin 43%
vs Bologna20 Dec · Serie Awin 38%
vs Lazio3 Jan · Serie Awin 30%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.