Cambuur
vs
Sparta Rotterdam
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Cambuur 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam
The model makes it 56% Cambuur, 21% draw, 23% Sparta Rotterdam — fair odds of 1.79, 4.76 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Cambuur 2.59, Sparta Rotterdam 1.51.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.
Edge to Cambuur: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Cambuur's rating is built from 12 Eredivisie matches and Sparta Rotterdam's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- Cambuur are 10th on 15 points from 12 games; Sparta Rotterdam are 12th on 12 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- Cambuur have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-5 defeat at home to PSV Eindhoven.
- Sparta Rotterdam have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to ADO Den Haag.
- Last 6 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 May 2023, ended Sparta Rotterdam 4–1 Cambuur.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam
Has the model earned this number?
Cambuur at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam
Cambuur
Eredivisie
- L2-5PSV Eindhoven8 November 2026
- W4-0GO Ahead Eagles31 October 2026
- W6-1away to Willem II24 October 2026
- D2-2AZ Alkmaar18 October 2026
- W1-0away to PEC Zwolle11 October 2026
Sparta Rotterdam
Eredivisie
- L1-3away to ADO Den Haag7 November 2026
- W3-2away to Groningen1 November 2026
- L1-2Ajax25 October 2026
- W3-2Willem II17 October 2026
- D3-3away to GO Ahead Eagles10 October 2026
What these results say
- Cambuur scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cambuur had three goals or more.
- Sparta Rotterdam scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sparta Rotterdam had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 15 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cambuur
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 4% today
Sparta Rotterdam
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 32% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam
Cambuur and Sparta Rotterdam have met 6 times in the records we hold, Sparta Rotterdam has won 3 of them to Cambuur's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Sparta Rotterdam won the last one 4–1 on 21 May 2023.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 21 May 2023
EredivisieSparta Rotterdam 4–1 Cambuur - 21 Jan 2023
EredivisieCambuur 0–3 Sparta Rotterdam - 16 Jan 2022
EredivisieCambuur 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam - 26 Sep 2021
EredivisieSparta Rotterdam 0–4 Cambuur - 13 Jan 2019
Eerste DivisieCambuur 3–3 Sparta Rotterdam - 14 Oct 2018
Eerste DivisieSparta Rotterdam 3–0 Cambuur
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Cambuur's attack rates 34% above Sparta Rotterdam's, and Cambuur concede 4% fewer than Sparta Rotterdam. That gives Cambuur the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Cambuur | 0.99 | 1.36 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 0.74 | 1.41 |
Leading scorers: Cambuur and Sparta Rotterdam
Cambuur
GoalsAssists
- R. El Arguioui62
- I. Hamache53
- N. Binder52
Sparta Rotterdam
GoalsAssists
- M. Zonneveld72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cambuur the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.59 expected goals for Cambuur against 1.51 for Sparta Rotterdam. Cambuur's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.41 for Sparta Rotterdam.
How the model reaches 56% for Cambuur to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Cambuur to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Cambuur's ratings add 6 points and Sparta Rotterdam's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level45%+2
- Cambuur's ratings51%+6
- Sparta Rotterdam's ratings56%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Cambuur at home · Sparta Rotterdam away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
CambuurSparta Rotterdam
Cambuur are 10th after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 9th and 18th so far); Sparta Rotterdam are 12th after 12 (between 5th and 15th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Cambuur 12, Sparta Rotterdam 12.
Cambuur score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Sparta Rotterdam have let in 6 there.
Sparta Rotterdam score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Cambuur have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Cambuur
- at Heerenveen6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 25%
- at Ajax13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 16%
- vs Groningen20 Dec · Eredivisiewin 45%
- at NEC Nijmegen10 Jan · Eredivisiewin 31%
Sparta Rotterdam
- vs NEC Nijmegen5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 33%
- at Twente13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 10%
- at Fortuna Sittard19 Dec · Eredivisiewin 25%
- vs Excelsior9 Jan · Eredivisiewin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.