Excelsior
vs
Telstar
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Excelsior 1–2 Telstar
The model makes it 34% Excelsior, 26% draw, 40% Telstar — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Excelsior 1.46, Telstar 1.65.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Telstar: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Excelsior's rating is built from 46 Eredivisie matches and Telstar's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- Excelsior are 15th on 11 points from 12 games; Telstar are 16th on 10 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- Excelsior have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to GO Ahead Eagles.
- Telstar have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Fortuna Sittard.
- Last 5 meetings: Excelsior 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Excelsior 2–2 Telstar.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Excelsior vs Telstar
Has the model earned this number?
Telstar at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Excelsior vs Telstar
Excelsior
Eredivisie
- L0-1GO Ahead Eagles7 November 2026
- L0-9Twente1 November 2026
- L0-1away to Fortuna Sittard25 October 2026
- L0-4away to Heerenveen16 October 2026
- L1-5Groningen11 October 2026
Telstar
Eredivisie
- D2-2away to Fortuna Sittard7 November 2026
- W4-2Utrecht1 November 2026
- L2-3away to GO Ahead Eagles23 October 2026
- L3-4Feyenoord17 October 2026
- D2-2ADO Den Haag11 October 2026
What these results say
- Excelsior did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Excelsior conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Excelsior failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Telstar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Telstar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Telstar had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Excelsior
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 50% today
Telstar
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Excelsior vs Telstar
- 17 January 2026Excelsior 2–2 TelstarEredivisie
- 1 November 2025Telstar 2–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 21 February 2025Telstar 1–3 ExcelsiorEerste Divisie
- 13 September 2024Excelsior 3–2 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 8 April 2022Excelsior 1–4 TelstarEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Excelsior and Telstar
Excelsior
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Telstar
GoalsAssists
- T. Owusu51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Excelsior (15th, with Telstar 16th), while our numbers lean to Telstar. Telstar rate 0.80 in attack and 1.21 in defence, Excelsior 0.65 and 1.37 (lower is better in defence), so Telstar have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Telstar the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Excelsior against 1.65 for Telstar. Excelsior's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.21 for Telstar.
How the model reaches 40% for Telstar to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Telstar to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Excelsior's ratings add 5 points and Telstar's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Both sides at this match's level31%−1
- Excelsior's ratings36%+5
- Telstar's ratings40%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Excelsior at home · Telstar away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
ExcelsiorTelstar
Excelsior are 15th after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 1st and 15th so far); Telstar are 16th after 12 (between 2nd and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Excelsior 12, Telstar 12.
Excelsior score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Telstar have let in 4 there.
Telstar score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Excelsior have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Excelsior
- at ADO Den Haag6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 26%
- at PEC Zwolle12 Dec · Eredivisiewin 31%
- vs AZ Alkmaar19 Dec · Eredivisiewin 23%
- at Sparta Rotterdam9 Jan · Eredivisiewin 29%
Telstar
- vs Groningen4 Dec · Eredivisiewin 40%
- at PSV Eindhoven13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 11%
- vs Willem II18 Dec · Eredivisiewin 70%
- at ADO Den Haag10 Jan · Eredivisiewin 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.