Regular Season - 14 · 29 November 2026, 11:15 UTC

ADO Den Haag vs Utrecht Eredivisie prediction

WerkTalent Stadion, Den Haag

Our model says: ADO Den Haag 2–1 Utrecht

The model makes it 42% ADO Den Haag, 25% draw, 33% Utrecht — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: ADO Den Haag 1.76, Utrecht 1.50.

Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. ADO Den Haag's rating is built from 12 Eredivisie matches and Utrecht's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.

Key facts

ADO Den Haag are 17th on 9 points from 12 games; Utrecht are 14th on 12 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
ADO Den Haag have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Sparta Rotterdam.
Utrecht are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to NEC Nijmegen.
Last 6 meetings: Utrecht 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 April 2021, ended ADO Den Haag 1–4 Utrecht.

More Eredivisie predictions

All Eredivisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: ADO Den Haag vs Utrecht

65%

Both teams to score

63%

Over 2.5 goals

37%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

ADO Den Haag win Draw Utrecht win

1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
2–27%
1–06%
2–06%
0–15%

Scores read ADO Den Haag first; the other scorelines share the remaining 48%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

ADO Den Haag at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into ADO Den Haag vs Utrecht

ADO Den Haag

Eredivisie

W3-1Sparta Rotterdam7 November 2026
L0-1away to PEC Zwolle1 November 2026
L2-3Heerenveen24 October 2026
W2-1PSV Eindhoven17 October 2026
D2-2away to Telstar11 October 2026

Utrecht

Eredivisie

L2-3NEC Nijmegen8 November 2026
L2-4away to Telstar1 November 2026
D1-1PEC Zwolle24 October 2026
W2-1away to Twente18 October 2026
W3-1Willem II11 October 2026

What these results say

ADO Den Haag conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
ADO Den Haag scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for ADO Den Haag had three goals or more.
Utrecht scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Utrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Utrecht.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
17	ADO Den Haag	12	2	3	7	16	25	-9	9
14	Utrecht	12	3	3	6	21	34	-13	12

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

ADO Den Haag

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today

Win 17%

Draw 24%

Defeat 29%

Utrecht

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today

Win 14%

Draw 20%

Defeat 24%

From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: ADO Den Haag vs Utrecht

4 April 2021ADO Den Haag 1–4 UtrechtEredivisie
6 December 2020Utrecht 1–1 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
24 January 2020Utrecht 4–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
4 August 2019ADO Den Haag 2–4 UtrechtEredivisie
6 April 2019ADO Den Haag 5–0 UtrechtEredivisie
4 November 2018Utrecht 3–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie

The full ADO Den Haag vs Utrecht record →

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Utrecht (14th, with ADO Den Haag 17th), while our numbers lean to ADO Den Haag. ADO Den Haag rate 0.72 in attack and 1.22 in defence, Utrecht 0.82 and 1.32 (lower is better in defence), so ADO Den Haag have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

ADO Den Haag Utrecht

0.72 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.82

1.22 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.32

1.76 Model expected goals (this match) 1.50

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives ADO Den Haag the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for ADO Den Haag against 1.50 for Utrecht. ADO Den Haag's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.32 for Utrecht.

ADO Den Haag carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.61 for Utrecht. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 42% for ADO Den Haag to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for ADO Den Haag to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, ADO Den Haag's ratings take away 1 point and Utrecht's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 42%.

Two average sides, neutral ground38%
Home advantage43%+5
ADO Den Haag's ratings42%−1
Utrecht's ratings42%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

ADO Den HaagModelUtrecht

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

84%

model, this match

100%

10 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

63%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

41%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Both teams score

80%

8 of 10 games

65%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

ADO Den HaagUtrecht

12Matches12

2W 3D 7LRecord3W 3D 6L

16 1.3 per gameGoals scored21 1.8 per game

25 2.1 per gameGoals conceded34 2.8 per game

0 of 12Clean sheets0 of 12

3 of 12Failed to score1 of 12

–Penalties scored1 of 1

21 1.8 per gameYellow cards25 2.1 per game

1Red cards0

4-4-2 7×Usual shape3-4-3 5×

ADO Den Haag at home · Utrecht away

6Played6

2W 1D 3LRecord2W 1D 3L

11–13Goals for – against10–16

0 of 6Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

ADO Den HaagUtrecht

ADO Den Haag are 17th after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 15th and 18th so far); Utrecht are 14th after 12 (between 10th and 16th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eredivisie matches this season: ADO Den Haag 12, Utrecht 12.

ADO Den Haag scored 130623

Utrecht conceded 537937

ADO Den Haag score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Utrecht have let in 9 there.

Utrecht scored 112556

ADO Den Haag conceded 246292

Utrecht score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); ADO Den Haag have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

ADO Den Haag

vs Excelsior6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 49%
at Willem II13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 53%
at NEC Nijmegen20 Dec · Eredivisiewin 25%
vs Telstar10 Jan · Eredivisiewin 40%

Utrecht

at Ajax6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 14%
vs Fortuna Sittard12 Dec · Eredivisiewin 40%
vs Heerenveen19 Dec · Eredivisiewin 32%
at PEC Zwolle9 Jan · Eredivisiewin 39%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.