Bolton
vs
West Brom
Championship prediction
Our model says: Bolton 0–1 West Brom
The model makes it 30% Bolton, 29% draw, 41% West Brom — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Bolton 1.13, West Brom 1.42.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Edge to West Brom: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Bolton's rating is built from 15 Championship matches and West Brom's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Bolton are 18th on 17 points from 15 games; West Brom are 5th on 28 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Bolton have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Derby.
- West Brom are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Millwall.
- Last 6 meetings: Bolton 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 July 2024, ended West Brom 1–2 Bolton.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bolton vs West Brom
Has the model earned this number?
West Brom at 41%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bolton vs West Brom
Bolton
Championship
- L1-3away to Derby6 November 2026
- W1-0away to Charlton3 November 2026
- L2-3Bristol City31 October 2026
- L1-5Middlesbrough23 October 2026
- D0-0away to Southampton17 October 2026
West Brom
Championship
- W3-0Millwall7 November 2026
- D1-1Southampton3 November 2026
- W3-1away to West Ham31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Preston24 October 2026
- W3-2Blackburn17 October 2026
What these results say
- Bolton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bolton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- West Brom went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- West Brom scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- West Brom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 17 |
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bolton
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
West Brom
Chance to finish in the top two · 14% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bolton vs West Brom
Bolton and West Brom have met 6 times in the records we hold, Bolton has won 3 of them to West Brom's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Bolton won the last one 2–1 on 13 Jul 2024.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 11 |
| West Brom | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 22 goals, an average of 3.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 13 Jul 2024
Friendlies ClubsWest Brom 1–2 Bolton - 29 Jul 2023
Friendlies ClubsBolton 4–3 West Brom - 21 Jan 2019
ChampionshipBolton 0–2 West Brom - 4 Aug 2018
ChampionshipWest Brom 1–2 Bolton - 6 May 2012
Premier LeagueBolton 2–2 West Brom - 19 Nov 2011
Premier LeagueWest Brom 2–1 Bolton
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and West Brom concede 37% fewer than Bolton. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Bolton and West Brom
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby60
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- I. Price63
- J. Morgan54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bolton a 0% chance of the title and West Brom 5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Brom the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Bolton against 1.42 for West Brom. Bolton's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.06 for West Brom.
How the model reaches 41% for West Brom to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for West Brom to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Bolton's ratings add 6 points and West Brom's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Bolton's ratings36%+6
- West Brom's ratings41%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bolton at home · West Brom away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
BoltonWest Brom
Bolton are 18th after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 22nd so far); West Brom are 5th after 15 (between 1st and 7th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Bolton 15, West Brom 15.
Bolton score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); West Brom have let in 1 there.
West Brom score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Bolton have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bolton
- at Birmingham28 Nov · Championshipwin 16%
- vs Blackburn5 Dec · Championshipwin 38%
- at Swansea8 Dec · Championshipwin 22%
- vs Wrexham11 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
West Brom
- vs Bristol City28 Nov · Championshipwin 52%
- at Portsmouth5 Dec · Championshipwin 34%
- vs Cardiff8 Dec · Championshipwin 48%
- at Stoke City12 Dec · Championshipwin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.