Bolton
vs
Portsmouth
Championship prediction
Our model says: Bolton 0–1 Portsmouth
The model makes it 35% Bolton, 28% draw, 37% Portsmouth — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Bolton 1.31, Portsmouth 1.34.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Bolton and Portsmouth are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Bolton's rating is built from 15 Championship matches and Portsmouth's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Bolton are 18th on 17 points from 15 games; Portsmouth are 11th on 22 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Bolton have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Derby.
- Portsmouth have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Stoke City.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 April 2024, ended Bolton 1–1 Portsmouth.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bolton vs Portsmouth
Has the model earned this number?
Portsmouth at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bolton vs Portsmouth
Bolton
Championship
- L1-3away to Derby6 November 2026
- W1-0away to Charlton3 November 2026
- L2-3Bristol City31 October 2026
- L1-5Middlesbrough23 October 2026
- D0-0away to Southampton17 October 2026
Portsmouth
Championship
- L1-2Stoke City7 November 2026
- W3-1Swansea3 November 2026
- D0-0away to Burnley31 October 2026
- W2-1Millwall24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Wolves20 October 2026
What these results say
- Bolton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bolton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portsmouth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portsmouth conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Portsmouth.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 17 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bolton
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bolton vs Portsmouth
Bolton and Portsmouth have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Bolton on 13 Apr 2024.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Portsmouth | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 13 Apr 2024
League OneBolton 1–1 Portsmouth - 11 Dec 2023
League OnePortsmouth 2–0 Bolton - 28 Feb 2023
League OnePortsmouth 3–1 Bolton - 14 Jan 2023
League OneBolton 3–0 Portsmouth - 10 Jan 2023
EFL TrophyBolton 1–0 Portsmouth - 5 Apr 2022
League OneBolton 1–1 Portsmouth
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Bolton's attack rates 4% above Portsmouth's, and Portsmouth concede 26% fewer than Bolton. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 0.70 | 1.67 |
| Portsmouth | 0.67 | 1.23 |
Leading scorers: Bolton and Portsmouth
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby60
Portsmouth
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bolton a 0% chance of the title and Portsmouth 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Portsmouth the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Bolton against 1.34 for Portsmouth. Bolton's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.23 for Portsmouth.
How the model reaches 37% for Portsmouth to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Portsmouth to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Bolton's ratings add 4 points and Portsmouth's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Bolton's ratings34%+4
- Portsmouth's ratings37%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bolton at home · Portsmouth away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
BoltonPortsmouth
Bolton are 18th after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 22nd so far); Portsmouth are 11th after 15 (between 8th and 22nd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Bolton 15, Portsmouth 15.
Bolton score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Portsmouth have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bolton
- vs West Brom25 Nov · Championshipwin 30%
- at Birmingham28 Nov · Championshipwin 16%
- vs Blackburn5 Dec · Championshipwin 38%
- at Swansea8 Dec · Championshipwin 22%
- vs Wrexham11 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
Portsmouth
- vs West Ham24 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
- at Wrexham28 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
- vs West Brom5 Dec · Championshipwin 35%
- at Preston9 Dec · Championshipwin 41%
- vs Birmingham12 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.