Paris FC
vs
Angers
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Paris FC 2–0 Angers
The model makes it 71% Paris FC, 19% draw, 10% Angers — fair odds of 1.41, 5.26 and 10.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Paris FC 2.51, Angers 0.69.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Paris FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Paris FC's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Angers's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Paris FC are 3rd on 20 points from 10 games; Angers are 16th on 8 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Paris FC have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Auxerre.
- Angers have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Nice.
- Last 5 meetings: Angers 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Angers 3–2 Paris FC.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Paris FC vs Angers
Has the model earned this number?
Paris FC at 71%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Paris FC vs Angers
Paris FC
Ligue 1
- W1-0away to Auxerre7 November 2026
- W3-1Monaco1 November 2026
- L1-2away to Lens24 October 2026
- W4-3Rennes18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Lorient10 October 2026
Angers
Ligue 1
- L0-2Nice8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Lyon1 November 2026
- D0-0Lorient25 October 2026
- L2-5Marseille18 October 2026
- L1-5away to Stade Brestois 2910 October 2026
What these results say
- Paris FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Paris FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Angers did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Angers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Paris FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 16 | Angers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Paris FC
Chance to finish in the top three · 52% today
Angers
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 56% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Angers vs Paris FC
Angers and Paris FC have met 5 times in the records we hold, Angers has won 3 of them to Paris FC's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Angers won the last one 3–2 on 15 Aug 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Paris FC | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
Between them these 5 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 2.40 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 15 Aug 2026
Friendlies ClubsAngers 3–2 Paris FC - 25 Jan 2026
Ligue 1Paris FC 0–0 Angers - 17 Aug 2025
Ligue 1Angers 1–0 Paris FC - 27 Apr 2024
Ligue 2Paris FC 3–1 Angers - 2 Sep 2023
Ligue 2Angers 2–0 Paris FC
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Paris FC's attack rates 89% above Angers', and Paris FC concede 36% fewer than Angers. That gives Paris FC the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Paris FC and Angers
Paris FC
GoalsAssists
- L. Sinayoko95
Angers
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Paris FC a 8.5% chance of the title and Angers 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Paris FC v Angers has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 69% / 20% / 11% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 71% / 19% / 10%: the biggest move is Paris FC's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Paris FC win71%▲ +2
- Draw19%▼ −1
- Angers win10%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris FC the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Paris FC against 0.69 for Angers. Paris FC's attack/defence rating is 1.17/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.27 for Angers.
How the model reaches 71% for Paris FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Paris FC to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Paris FC's ratings add 16 points and Angers's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 71%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−2
- Paris FC's ratings57%+16
- Angers's ratings71%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Paris FC at home · Angers away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Paris FCAngers
Paris FC are 3rd after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Angers are 16th after 10 (between 6th and 15th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Paris FC 10, Angers 10.
Paris FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Angers have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Paris FC
- at Stade Brestois 2927 Nov · Ligue 1win 43%
- vs Le Mans5 Dec · Ligue 1win 66%
- at Paris Saint Germain12 Dec · Ligue 1win 21%
- vs Le Havre2 Jan · Ligue 1win 69%
- vs Toulouse17 Jan · Ligue 1win 55%
Angers
- vs Lens28 Nov · Ligue 1win 21%
- at Monaco5 Dec · Ligue 1win 13%
- vs Strasbourg12 Dec · Ligue 1win 26%
- at Toulouse2 Jan · Ligue 1win 17%
- vs Paris Saint Germain16 Jan · Ligue 1win 10%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.