Sevilla
vs
Alaves
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Sevilla 2–1 Alaves
The model makes it 43% Sevilla, 27% draw, 30% Alaves — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sevilla 1.58, Alaves 1.22.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Sevilla's rating is built from 47 La Liga matches and Alaves's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 849 matches.
Key facts
- Sevilla are 6th on 14 points from 9 games; Alaves are 7th on 11 points from 9 games — La Liga.
- Sevilla are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Real Madrid.
- Alaves have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Celta Vigo.
- Last 6 meetings: Alaves 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Sevilla 1–1 Alaves.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sevilla vs Alaves
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sevilla at 43% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sevilla vs Alaves
Sevilla
La Liga
- L1-4away to Real Madrid18 October 2026
- D3-3away to Levante12 October 2026
- L1-3Barcelona19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Deportivo La Coruna16 September 2026
- W1-0Valencia11 September 2026
Alaves
La Liga
- L1-2away to Celta Vigo18 October 2026
- L1-2Atletico Madrid10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Athletic Club19 September 2026
- L0-1Valencia15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Racing Santander12 September 2026
What these results say
- Sevilla scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alaves did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Alaves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 | Alaves | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Alaves vs Sevilla
Alaves and Sevilla have met 6 times in the records we hold, Alaves has won 3 of them to Sevilla's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Sevilla on 14 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 |
| Sevilla | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 14 Feb 2026
La LigaSevilla 1–1 Alaves - 17 Dec 2025
Copa del ReyAlaves 1–0 Sevilla - 20 Sep 2025
La LigaAlaves 1–2 Sevilla - 20 Apr 2025
La LigaSevilla 1–1 Alaves - 20 Sep 2024
La LigaAlaves 2–1 Sevilla - 12 Jan 2024
La LigaSevilla 2–3 Alaves
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Sevilla and Alaves
Sevilla
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz34
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sevilla carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.82 for Alaves. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Sevilla and 1.22 for Alaves. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sevilla rate 0.98 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alaves rate 0.94 and 0.99.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sevilla the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sevilla against 1.22 for Alaves. Sevilla's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.99 for Alaves.
How the model reaches 43% for Sevilla to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sevilla to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Sevilla's ratings take away 2 points and Alaves's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Sevilla's ratings42%−2
- Alaves's ratings43%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sevilla at home · Alaves away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SevillaAlaves
Sevilla are 6th after 9 La Liga matches (between 1st and 7th so far); Alaves are 7th after 9 (between 1st and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Sevilla 9, Alaves 9.
Sevilla score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Alaves have let in 4 there.
Alaves score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Sevilla have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sevilla
- vs Real Betis22 Nov · La Ligawin 33%
- at Real Sociedad29 Nov · La Ligawin 24%
- vs Malaga6 Dec · La Ligawin 59%
Alaves
- vs Deportivo La Coruna22 Nov · La Ligawin 44%
- at Real Madrid29 Nov · La Ligawin 12%
- vs Espanyol6 Dec · La Ligawin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.