SK Beveren
vs
Lommel United
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: SK Beveren 0–1 Lommel United
The model makes it 31% SK Beveren, 31% draw, 38% Lommel United — fair odds of 3.23, 3.23 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: SK Beveren 1.04, Lommel United 1.29.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: SK Beveren vs Lommel United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lommel United at 38% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 2151 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SK Beveren vs Lommel United
SK Beveren
- L0-1away to Kortrijk20 September 2026
- W2-0St. Truiden12 September 2026
- W3-0OH Leuven6 September 2026
- L0-4away to Genk28 August 2026
- L0-4away to Zulte Waregem22 August 2026
Lommel United
- D0-0KV Mechelen19 September 2026
- L0-5away to Union St. Gilloise12 September 2026
- L0-1Club Brugge KV4 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cercle Brugge29 August 2026
- W4-0KVC Westerlo23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SK Beveren | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 12 | Lommel United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SK Beveren vs Lommel United
- 8 February 2026SK Beveren 2–0 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
- 7 November 2025Lommel United 2–2 SK BeverenChallenger Pro League
- 22 February 2025Lommel United 1–2 SK BeverenChallenger Pro League
- 17 August 2024SK Beveren 2–1 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
- 19 April 2024Lommel United 3–1 SK BeverenChallenger Pro League
- 12 November 2023SK Beveren 2–2 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
Leading scorers: SK Beveren and Lommel United
SK Beveren
- C. Lokesa3 goals
Lommel United
- T. Reyners3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SK Beveren carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.79 for Lommel United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.04 goals for SK Beveren and 1.29 for Lommel United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SK Beveren rate 0.70 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lommel United rate 0.79 and 0.92.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour SK Beveren, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lommel United the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for SK Beveren against 1.29 for Lommel United. SK Beveren's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/0.92 for Lommel United.