9 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

SK Beveren vs Lommel United Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Freethiel Stadion, Beveren
Referee: Michiel Allaerts, Belgium
Full time1 – 3

Final score: SK Beveren 1-3 Lommel United.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% SK Beveren, 30% draw, 40% Lommel United — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lommel United at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SK Beveren0%Draw1%Lommel United99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
⚽D. Konaduassist: N. Rommens
39'
Shawn Adewoye
⚽C. Lokesaassist: C. Bruls
41'
Cheick Oumar Condé
45+2'
48'
⚽D. Konaduassist: J. Talvitie
56'
⚽L. Schoofsassist: N. Rommens
🔁J. Margarithaout: A. Verschueren
62'
🔁E. Kaboreout: V. Olatunji
62'
Sieben Dewaele
67'
71'
🔁I. Dada-Mascollout: T. Gooijer
🔁C. Condeout: I. Najim
74'
🔁C. Lokesaout: L. Mertens
74'
78'
🔁T. Reynersout: D. Gordic
78'
🔁S. Appuahout: N. Corthouts
85'
🔁D. Konaduout: A. Reumers
🔁C. Konateout: D. Thompson
89'

Match stats — SK Beveren vs Lommel United

62%Possession38%
9Shots19
3On target7
12Corners6
0.73xG1.5

Goals against chances

SK Beveren1 from 0.73 xGabout what the chances were worth
Lommel United3 from 1.50 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SK Beveren 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. SchenkG
  • 25C. KonateD
  • 35Y. GomisD
  • 31B. GodeauD
  • 4C. JanssensD
  • 18S. DewaeleM
  • 44C. CondeM
  • 5C. LokesaM
  • 22C. BrulsM
  • 17J. MargarithaM
  • 9E. KaboreF
Substitutes
  • 84J. LusambaG
  • 2D. ThompsonD
  • 48J. RobatschD
  • 7I. NajimF
  • 24A. VerschuerenM
  • 8F. SlegersM
  • 92L. MertensF
  • 33V. OlatunjiF
  • 11J. DioufF
Coach: Tim Bakens
Lommel United 4-2-3-1
  • 23M. PieklakG
  • 2J. van DuivenD
  • 3T. EyomaD
  • 8N. RommensD
  • 4S. AdewoyeD
  • 15L. SchoofsM
  • 44I. Dada-MascollM
  • 7J. TalvitieM
  • 10T. ReynersM
  • 11S. AppuahM
  • 9D. KonaduF
Substitutes
  • 33R. VercauterenG
  • 1N. IvezicG
  • 47T. GooijerD
  • 22D. GordicM
  • 46N. CorthoutsF
  • 17E. VandecraenD
  • 60L. BeirinckxD
  • 73A. Reumers
  • 12E. OdedeF
Coach: Lee Johnson

Form going into SK Beveren vs Lommel United

SK Beveren

Jupiler Pro League

  • L0-1away to Kortrijk20 September 2026

Lommel United

Jupiler Pro League

  • D0-0KV Mechelen19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15SK Beveren113171323-1010
6Lommel United114431513+216

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SK Beveren vs Lommel United

  • 8 February 2026SK Beveren 2–0 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
  • 7 November 2025Lommel United 2–2 SK BeverenChallenger Pro League
  • 22 February 2025Lommel United 1–2 SK BeverenChallenger Pro League
  • 17 August 2024SK Beveren 2–1 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
  • 19 April 2024Lommel United 3–1 SK BeverenChallenger Pro League

Leading scorers: SK Beveren and Lommel United

SK Beveren

GoalsAssists

  • C. Lokesa50

Lommel United

GoalsAssists

  • Don-Angelo Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lommel United won 3–1 at SK Beveren. The model had made a win for Lommel United its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: D. Konadu 24' for Lommel United, C. Lokesa 41' for SK Beveren, D. Konadu 48' for Lommel United, L. Schoofs 56' for Lommel United. On expected goals it finished 0.73–1.50.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave SK Beveren a 21.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 15.1% after a win, 21.9% after a draw, 25.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.6%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

For Lommel United the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.8% going in: 8.3% after a win, 6.4% after a draw, 4.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.3%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on SK Beveren v Lommel United has moved

First published on 25 Sep at 31% / 31% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 30% / 30% / 40%: the biggest move is Lommel United's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. SK Beveren win30%▼ −1
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. Lommel United win40%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.