10 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava Czech Liga prediction & result

Dolicek, Prague
Referee: Adam Trska, Czechia
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Bohemians 1905 1-0 Baník Ostrava.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Bohemians 1905, 29% draw, 26% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bohemians 1905 at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bohemians 190597%Draw3%Baník Ostrava0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Aleš Čermákassist: Vojtěch Smrž
26'
46'
🔁Filip Šanclout: Dantaye Gilbert
60'
🔁David Plankaout: Artúr Musák
🔁Ladislav Krobotout: Václav Pilař
69'
🔁Vojtěch Smržout: Samuel Obinaya
69'
•Ladislav Almási
73'
74'
🔁Václav Jurečkaout: Michal Kohút
74'
🔁Jiří Boulaout: Aboubacar Traore
🔁Roman Kvetout: Šimon Černý
79'
83'
🔁Daniel Holzerout: Matúš Kmeť
🔁Aleš Čermákout: Denis Vála
90'
🔁Ladislav Almásiout: David Heidenreich
90'

Match stats — Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava

49%Possession51%
19Shots9
5On target2
5Corners5
2.51xG0.73

Goals against chances

Bohemians 19051 from 2.51 xGless than the chances were worth
Baník Ostrava0 from 0.73 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bohemians 1905 5-3-2
  • 23Tomáš FrühwaldG
  • 32Petr MirvaldD
  • 24Milan HavelD
  • 27David LischkaD
  • 3Matej KadlecD
  • 37Dominik JavorčekD
  • 47Aleš ČermákM
  • 42Vojtěch SmržM
  • 16Roman KvetM
  • 9Ladislav KrobotF
  • 99Ladislav AlmásiF
Substitutes
  • 62Samuel ObinayaM
  • 11Václav PilařM
  • 70Šimon ČernýM
  • 8David HeidenreichD
  • 18Denis VálaD
  • 12Michal ReichlG
  • 25Peter KareemD
  • 15Mathews BandaD
  • 22Jan VondraD
Baník Ostrava 3-5-2
  • 23Martin JedličkaG
  • 17Michal FrydrychD
  • 83Roan NoghaD
  • 42Jiri MicekD
  • 95Daniel HolzerM
  • 19Filip ŠanclM
  • 5Jiří BoulaM
  • 18David PlankaM
  • 34Abdullahi BeweneM
  • 15Václav JurečkaF
  • 22Vit SkrkonF
Substitutes
  • 7Dantaye GilbertM
  • 55Artúr MusákM
  • 8Aboubacar TraoreM
  • 21Michal KohútM
  • 81Matúš KmeťD
  • 1Viktor BudinskýG
  • 3Rhodri SmithD
  • 37Matěj ChalušD
  • 28Filip KubalaF

Form going into Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava

Bohemians 1905

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Pardubice19 September 2026
  • W2-0Slovácko12 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Sigma Olomouc5 September 2026
  • D1-1FK Jablonec2 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Slavia Praha22 August 2026

Baník Ostrava

Czech Liga

  • D2-2away to Slovácko19 September 2026

What these results say

  • Bohemians 1905 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bohemians 1905 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bohemians 1905 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Bohemians 1905145541515020
13Baník Ostrava134271023-1314

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava

  • 18 April 2026Baník Ostrava 0–2 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
  • 19 July 2025Bohemians 1905 1–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
  • 19 April 2025Baník Ostrava 1–0 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
  • 20 July 2024Bohemians 1905 2–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
  • 24 February 2024Baník Ostrava 1–1 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga

Leading scorers: Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava

Bohemians 1905

GoalsAssists

  • A. Čermák52

Baník Ostrava

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bohemians 1905 beat Baník Ostrava 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Bohemians 1905 at 45%. The goal: Aleš Čermák 26' for Bohemians 1905. On expected goals it finished 2.51–0.73.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bohemians 1905 a 8.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.3% after a win, 9.2% after a draw, 11.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.3%, 3 points lower than before the match.

For Baník Ostrava the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 29.0% going in: 17.5% after a win, 27.6% after a draw, 35.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.0%, 6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bohemians 1905 v Baník Ostrava has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Bohemians 1905's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Bohemians 1905 win45%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Baník Ostrava win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.