Bohemians 1905
vs
Baník Ostrava
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Bohemians 1905 1–0 Baník Ostrava
The model makes it 42% Bohemians 1905, 30% draw, 28% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bohemians 1905 1.43, Baník Ostrava 0.94.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bohemians 1905 at 42% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava
Bohemians 1905
- L1-2away to Pardubice19 September 2026
- W2-0Slovácko12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Sigma Olomouc5 September 2026
- D1-1FK Jablonec2 September 2026
- D2-2away to Slavia Praha22 August 2026
Baník Ostrava
- D2-2away to Slovácko19 September 2026
- L1-2Pardubice13 September 2026
- L0-3away to FK Jablonec9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Mlada Boleslav6 September 2026
- W1-0Sigma Olomouc29 August 2026
What these results say
- Bohemians 1905 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bohemians 1905 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bohemians 1905 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baník Ostrava failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baník Ostrava conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Baník Ostrava had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bohemians 1905 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Baník Ostrava | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava
- 18 April 2026Baník Ostrava 0–2 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
- 19 July 2025Bohemians 1905 1–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 19 April 2025Baník Ostrava 1–0 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
- 20 July 2024Bohemians 1905 2–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 24 February 2024Baník Ostrava 1–1 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
- 16 September 2023Bohemians 1905 1–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bohemians 1905 carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.45 for Baník Ostrava. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.94 for Baník Ostrava. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bohemians 1905 rate 0.66 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Baník Ostrava rate 0.64 and 1.42.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Baník Ostrava, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bohemians 1905 a 0.1% chance of the title and Baník Ostrava 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bohemians 1905 the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 against 0.94 for Baník Ostrava. Bohemians 1905's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.42 for Baník Ostrava.