Genk
vs
Kortrijk
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Genk 2–0 Kortrijk
The model makes it 59% Genk, 25% draw, 16% Kortrijk — fair odds of 1.69, 4.00 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Genk 2.24, Kortrijk 0.64.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Genk vs Kortrijk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Genk at 59% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Genk vs Kortrijk
Genk
- L0-3away to Club Brugge KV20 September 2026
- D1-1Gent13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Anderlecht6 September 2026
- W4-0SK Beveren28 August 2026
- D4-4away to Antwerp22 August 2026
Kortrijk
- W1-0SK Beveren20 September 2026
- L0-3away to RAAL La Louvière13 September 2026
- L0-2Zulte Waregem6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Anderlecht3 September 2026
- L1-3Charleroi29 August 2026
What these results say
- Genk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kortrijk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kortrijk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Genk | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 9 |
| 16 | Kortrijk | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Genk vs Kortrijk
- 7 December 2024Genk 3–2 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 5 October 2024Kortrijk 2–1 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 17 December 2023Genk 4–0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 29 October 2023Kortrijk 0–3 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 26 December 2022Kortrijk 1–0 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 8 October 2022Genk 2–1 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Genk and Kortrijk
Genk
- R. Durosinmi5 goals
Kortrijk
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Genk carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.31 for Kortrijk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.24 goals for Genk and 0.64 for Kortrijk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Genk rate 0.95 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kortrijk rate 0.48 and 1.46.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Genk the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Genk against 0.64 for Kortrijk. Genk's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.46 for Kortrijk.