Zbrojovka Brno
vs
FK Jablonec
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Zbrojovka Brno 1–0 FK Jablonec
The model makes it 40% Zbrojovka Brno, 30% draw, 30% FK Jablonec — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Zbrojovka Brno 1.43, FK Jablonec 1.09.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zbrojovka Brno at 40% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec
Zbrojovka Brno
- L0-2away to Mlada Boleslav19 September 2026
- W2-1Artis12 September 2026
- L0-4away to Slavia Praha5 September 2026
- W1-0Hradec Králové2 September 2026
- W3-2Zlin29 August 2026
FK Jablonec
- D1-1Zlin20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha12 September 2026
- W3-0Baník Ostrava9 September 2026
- L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bohemians 19052 September 2026
What these results say
- Zbrojovka Brno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Jablonec failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Jablonec scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Jablonec conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Zbrojovka Brno | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 | FK Jablonec | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec
- 21 May 2023FK Jablonec 1–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 19 March 2023Zbrojovka Brno 1–2 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 2 October 2022FK Jablonec 3–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 14 March 2021Zbrojovka Brno 1–2 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 6 November 2020FK Jablonec 0–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 1 October 2019FK Jablonec 3–2 Zbrojovka BrnoCup
Leading scorers: Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec
Zbrojovka Brno
- D. Vašulín4 goals
- A. Vaníček3 goals1 assists
FK Jablonec
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zbrojovka Brno carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.58 for FK Jablonec. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.09 for FK Jablonec. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zbrojovka Brno rate 0.76 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Jablonec rate 0.72 and 1.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zbrojovka Brno a 0.6% chance of the title and FK Jablonec 0.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zbrojovka Brno the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno against 1.09 for FK Jablonec. Zbrojovka Brno's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.24 for FK Jablonec.