Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Zbrojovka Brno 0-1 FK Jablonec.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Zbrojovka Brno, 29% draw, 29% FK Jablonec — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Zbrojovka Brno at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Adam HrdinaG
- 39Jakub KlímaD
- 38Jakub PokornýD
- 3Kauan Carneiro KakaD
- 6Lukas PenxaM
- 8Patrik ČavošM
- 17Jaromír ZmrhalM
- 44Amadou DanteM
- 10Antonin VanicekF
- 15Daniel VašulínF
- 79Soliu AfolabiF
- 77Lucky EzehF
- 14Tadeáš VachoušekF
- 7Štěpán LangerM
- 11Martin RymarenkoF
- 26Filip VedralD
- 78Ondrej ProdelalG
- 4Eric HunalD
- 19Bienvenue KanakimanaF
- 18Denis GranečnýD
- 1Jan HanušG
- 18Martin CedidlaD
- 4Nemanja TekijaškiD
- 15Dušan PavlovićD
- 23Eduard SobolD
- 7Vakhtang ChanturishviliM
- 13Richard SedláčekM
- 25Sebastian NebylaM
- 36Garang KuolM
- 24Dominik HollýF
- 44Lamin JawoF
- 17Saidou Alioum MoubarakF
- 9Antonín RůsekF
- 6Nelson OkekeM
- 57Filip NovákD
- 14Daniel SoučekD
- 33Michal KukučkaG
- 8Filip ZorvanM
- 21Matěj PolidarM
- 16Hugo AhlM
Form going into Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec
Zbrojovka Brno
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Mlada Boleslav19 September 2026
- W2-1Artis12 September 2026
- L0-4away to Slavia Praha5 September 2026
- W1-0Hradec Králové2 September 2026
- W3-2Zlin29 August 2026
FK Jablonec
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Zlin20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha12 September 2026
- W3-0Baník Ostrava9 September 2026
- L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bohemians 19052 September 2026
What these results say
- Zbrojovka Brno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Jablonec failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Jablonec scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Jablonec conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Zbrojovka Brno | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 20 |
| 7 | FK Jablonec | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec
- 21 May 2023FK Jablonec 1–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 19 March 2023Zbrojovka Brno 1–2 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 2 October 2022FK Jablonec 3–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 14 March 2021Zbrojovka Brno 1–2 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 6 November 2020FK Jablonec 0–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec
Zbrojovka Brno
GoalsAssists
- D. Vašulín50
FK Jablonec
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FK Jablonec won 1–0 at Zbrojovka Brno. The model had leaned towards a win for Zbrojovka Brno at 42% and given a win for FK Jablonec 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Antonín Růsek 85' for FK Jablonec. On expected goals it finished 0.56–1.26.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zbrojovka Brno a 19.4% chance to finish in the top four: 23.3% after a win, 18.1% after a draw, 13.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.2%, 6.2 points lower than before the match.
For FK Jablonec the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.5% going in: 9.9% after a win, 5.8% after a draw, 3.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.9%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Zbrojovka Brno v FK Jablonec has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is Zbrojovka Brno's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Zbrojovka Brno win42%▲ +2
- Draw29%▼ −1
- FK Jablonec win29%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.