10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Jan Breydel Stadion, Brugge
Referee: Kevin van Damme, Belgium
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Cercle Brugge 1-2 Anderlecht.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Cercle Brugge, 25% draw, 33% Anderlecht — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cercle Brugge at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cercle Brugge5%Draw91%Anderlecht4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Steve Ngoura
4'
⚽A. Mannehassist: L. Le Roux
11'
46'
🔁L. Ambrosout: O. Antman
46'
🔁D. Sikanout: M. Cvetkovic
🔁C. Herrmannout: V. Martens
59'
🔁A. Mannehout: D. Vanzeir
59'
59'
🔁M. Kanaout: M. Stroeykens
66'
🔁L. Augustinssonout: A. Bertaccini
🔁H. van der Bruggenout: L. Mondele
71'
🔁T. Akinsolaout: A. K. Ouattara
71'
78'
🔁I. Koutsoupiasout: T. Aasgaard
🔁S. Ngouraout: K. Kouassi
80'
86'
⚽T. Bentayebassist: L. Petrot
89'
Kaïs Barry
90+1'
Oliver Antman
90'
⚽A. Bertacciniassist: O. Antman

Match stats — Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht

35%Possession65%
13Shots11
7On target6
5Corners5
0.66xG0.83

Goals against chances

Cercle Brugge1 from 0.66 xGabout what the chances were worth
Anderlecht2 from 0.83 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cercle Brugge 4-2-3-1
  • 1G. CouckeG
  • 15G. MagneeD
  • 5E. KakouD
  • 24G. KondoD
  • 12V. KonateD
  • 18L. Le RouxM
  • 28H. van der BruggenM
  • 11C. HerrmannM
  • 20A. MannehM
  • 30T. AkinsolaM
  • 9S. NgouraF
Substitutes
  • 21Y. LienardG
  • 2I. DiakiteD
  • 33R. CaicedoD
  • 10L. AmaniM
  • 42L. MondeleM
  • 71V. MartensM
  • 41K. KouassiF
  • 13D. VanzeirF
  • 7A. K. OuattaraF
Coach: Lars Friis
Anderlecht 4-2-3-1
  • 26C. CoosemansG
  • 79A. MaamarD
  • 50K. BarryD
  • 27L. PetrotD
  • 6L. AugustinssonD
  • 55M. KanaM
  • 30I. KoutsoupiasM
  • 18L. AmbrosM
  • 14D. SikanM
  • 10M. WinklerM
  • 21T. BentayebF
Substitutes
  • 32J. HeekerenG
  • 5O. ReabciukD
  • 2Z. KeitaD
  • 19T. AasgaardM
  • 8R. AmaneM
  • 29M. StroeykensM
  • 91A. BertacciniF
  • 11O. AntmanF
  • 9M. CvetkovicF
Coach: Vitor Bruno

Form going into Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht

Cercle Brugge

Jupiler Pro League

  • L2-3away to Charleroi19 September 2026

Anderlecht

Jupiler Pro League

  • W3-0Zulte Waregem19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Cercle Brugge112361422-89
5Anderlecht116231412+220

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht

  • 22 March 2026Anderlecht 2–3 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
  • 3 August 2025Cercle Brugge 0–2 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
  • 16 March 2025Anderlecht 3–0 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
  • 10 November 2024Cercle Brugge 0–5 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
  • 28 April 2024Cercle Brugge 1–1 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League

The result against the call

Anderlecht won 2–1 at Cercle Brugge. The model had leaned towards a win for Cercle Brugge at 42% and given a win for Anderlecht 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Manneh 11' for Cercle Brugge, T. Bentayeb 86' for Anderlecht, A. Bertaccini 90' for Anderlecht. On expected goals it finished 0.66–0.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cercle Brugge a 7.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.0% after a win, 7.6% after a draw, 8.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.0%, 1 points higher than before the match.

For Anderlecht the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 16.7% going in: 20.1% after a win, 15.8% after a draw, 14.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.1%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cercle Brugge v Anderlecht has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 25% / 33%: the biggest move is Cercle Brugge's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Cercle Brugge win42%▲ +3
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Anderlecht win33%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.