Regular Season - 6 · 13 September 2026, 16:30 UTC

Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Elindus Arena, Waregem
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Zulte Waregem 0-1 Charleroi.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Zulte Waregem, 30% draw, 30% Charleroi — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Zulte Waregem 1.38, Charleroi 1.04.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi

49%
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 12%0-0 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Zulte Waregem at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zulte Waregem0%Draw4%Charleroi96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
⚽Jakob Napoleon Romsaasassist: Aurelien Scheidler
63'
🔁Aurelien Scheidlerout: Adama Bojang
64'
🔁Freddy Mbembaout: Gaku Nawata
71'
🔁Patrick Pflückeout: Triston Rowe
71'
🔁Amine Boukamirout: Isaac Cisse
🔁Franz Tangalaout: Malick Mbaye
74'
🔁István Átrokout: Tobias Hedl
76'
80'
Isaac Cisse
Ousseynou Niang
81'
83'
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
🔁Thomas Claesout: Serxho Ujka
83'
🔁Yannick Cappelleout: Youssoupha Mbodji
84'
🔁Marley Akéout: Hemsley Akpa-Chukwu
84'
86'
🔁Kevin Van Den Kerkhofout: Massamba Sow
90+3'
Adama Bojang

Match stats — Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi

48%Possession52%
15Shots15
2On target5
9Corners3

Line-ups

Zulte Waregem 4-3-2-1
  • 1L. BostynG
  • 49F. TangalaD
  • 4L. LemoineD
  • 5J. KiilerichD
  • 55Y. CappelleD
  • 8T. ClaesM
  • 6E. LofolomoM
  • 22O. NiangM
  • 21Á. ZalánM
  • 11M. AkéM
  • 18A. EmentaF
Substitutes
  • 90A. HemsleyF
  • 23S. DiakitéD
  • 13B. GabriëlG
  • 20T. HedlF
  • 10M. MbayeF
  • 15E. MbodjiD
  • 7N. MituljikićF
  • 36S. UjkaM
  • 53Kewan VembaF
Coach: M. Beale
Charleroi 4-2-3-1
  • 30M. KonéG
  • 3K. Van Den KerkhofD
  • 4A. OusouD
  • 95C. KeitaD
  • 24M. NzitaD
  • 18Y. KhalifiM
  • 6A. BoukamirM
  • 14P. PflückeM
  • 8J. RomsaasM
  • 20F. Situmona MbembaM
  • 21A. ScheidlerF
Substitutes
  • 33N. SolheidD
  • 44M. SowD
  • 2T. RoweD
  • 13G. NawataM
  • 65Mory KeraM
  • 25A. ColassinF
  • 19I. CisseM
  • 9A. BojangF
  • 1M. DelavalléeG
Coach: Mario Kohnen

Form going into Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi

Zulte Waregem

  • W2-0away to Kortrijk6 September 2026
  • D2-2away to KVC Westerlo30 August 2026
  • W4-0SK Beveren22 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Union St. Gilloise15 August 2026

Charleroi

  • L2-3Union St. Gilloise5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Kortrijk29 August 2026
  • W2-0KV Mechelen22 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Lommel United16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Zulte Waregem6321104+611
4Charleroi6501125+715

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi

  • 13 September 2026Zulte Waregem 0–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 22 March 2026Zulte Waregem 1–0 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 20 September 2025Charleroi 1–2 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
  • 13 July 2024Charleroi 2–0 Zulte WaregemFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 April 2023Charleroi 3–2 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
  • 21 August 2022Zulte Waregem 1–3 CharleroiJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Zulte Waregem and Charleroi

Zulte Waregem

  • Á. Zalán3 goals
  • T. Hedl2 goals2 assists

Charleroi

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.38 goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.04 for Charleroi; the game produced 0 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Jakob Napoleon Romsaas 29' (Charleroi).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Zulte Waregem the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Zulte Waregem against 1.04 for Charleroi. Zulte Waregem's attack/defence rating is 0.76/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.12 for Charleroi.