13 September 2026, 11:00 UTC

Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice Czech Liga prediction & result

Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Ostrava
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Baník Ostrava 1-2 Pardubice.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Baník Ostrava, 29% draw, 40% Pardubice — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Pardubice at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Baník Ostrava0%Draw3%Pardubice97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
🔁Samuel Simekout: Václav Drchal
20'
⚽Václav Drchalassist: Ryan Mahuta
34'
Tomas Jelinek
Jiri Boula
44'
Filip Kubala
45+2'
🔁Jiri Micekout: Maksym·Diachuk
45'
🔁Daniel Holzerout: Artur Musak
45'
🔁Filip Kubalaout: Dantaye·Gilbert
45'
45'
🔁Victor Samuelout: Tobias Boledovic
54'
⚽Abdoull Tankoassist: Václav Drchal
57'
Mouhamed Tidjane Traore
59'
🔁Ryan Mahutaout: Daniel Smekal
71'
Daniel Smekal
🔁Yevgeniy Skybaout: Michal Frydrych
72'
🔁Vaclav Jureckaout: Rhodri Smith
72'
⚽Vit Skrkonassist: Jiri Boula
81'
86'
🔁Daniel Smekalout: Kahuan Vinicius
86'
🔁Abdoull Tankoout: Jan Tredl
88'
Denis Halinský

Match stats — Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice

54%Possession46%
14Shots16
4On target7
6Corners4

Line-ups

Baník Ostrava 3-4-1-2
  • 23M. JedličkaG
  • 44Y. SkybaD
  • 83R. NoghaD
  • 42J. MíčekD
  • 95D. HolzerM
  • 5J. BoulaM
  • 8A. TraoréM
  • 34A. BeweneM
  • 28F. KubalaM
  • 15V. JurečkaF
  • 22V. SkrkonF
Substitutes
  • 1V. BudinskýG
  • 16M. DyachukD
  • 17M. FrydrychD
  • 7D. GilbertM
  • 81M. KmeťD
  • 55Artúr MusákM
  • 19F. ŠanclM
  • 3Rhodri SmithD
Coach: R. Skuhravý
Pardubice 3-4-1-2
  • 46V. NeumanG
  • 6M. IchaD
  • 33D. HalinskýD
  • 21M. TraoreD
  • 15E. GodwinM
  • 8S. ŠimekM
  • 19M. HlavatýM
  • 25R. MahutaM
  • 16T. JelínekM
  • 20A. TankoF
  • 35S. ĎatkoF
Substitutes
  • 90G. BotosM
  • 17V. DrchalF
  • 1J. ŠerákG
  • 7D. SimonM
  • 9D. SmékalF
  • 12J. TrédlD
  • 40T. BoledovičD
  • 99Kahuan ViniciusF
  • 27M. ReilD
Coach: J. Trousil

Form going into Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice

Baník Ostrava

Czech Liga

  • L0-3away to FK Jablonec9 September 2026

Pardubice

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Slovácko5 September 2026
  • L1-2Artis29 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Sigma Olomouc23 August 2026
  • D1-1Mlada Boleslav15 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Slavia Praha9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Pardubice did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Pardubice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Pardubice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Baník Ostrava11326718-1111
12Pardubice124261417-314

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice

  • 13 December 2025Baník Ostrava 1–4 PardubiceCzech Liga
  • 5 November 2025Pardubice 3–4 Baník OstravaCup
  • 1 October 2025Pardubice 0–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
  • 29 March 2025Baník Ostrava 5–2 PardubiceCzech Liga
  • 5 March 2025Pardubice 0–2 Baník OstravaCup

The result against the call

Pardubice won 2–1 at Baník Ostrava. The model had made a win for Pardubice its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Václav Drchal 20' for Pardubice, Abdoull Tanko 54' for Pardubice, Vit Skrkon 81' for Baník Ostrava.

How the call on Baník Ostrava v Pardubice has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 31% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 31% / 29% / 40%: the biggest move is Pardubice's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Baník Ostrava win31%▼ −7
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Pardubice win40%▲ +9

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.