Regular Season - 8 · 13 September 2026, 11:00 UTC

Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice Czech Liga prediction & result

Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Ostrava
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Baník Ostrava 1-2 Pardubice.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Baník Ostrava, 29% draw, 38% Pardubice — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Baník Ostrava 1.23, Pardubice 1.40.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice

54%
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%0-1 9%1-2 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Pardubice at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Baník Ostrava0%Draw3%Pardubice97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
🔁Samuel Simekout: Václav Drchal
20'
⚽Václav Drchalassist: Ryan Mahuta
34'
Tomas Jelinek
Jiri Boula
44'
Filip Kubala
45+2'
🔁Jiri Micekout: Maksym·Diachuk
45'
🔁Daniel Holzerout: Artur Musak
45'
🔁Filip Kubalaout: Dantaye·Gilbert
45'
45'
🔁Victor Samuelout: Tobias Boledovic
54'
⚽Abdoull Tankoassist: Václav Drchal
57'
Mouhamed Tidjane Traore
59'
🔁Ryan Mahutaout: Daniel Smekal
71'
Daniel Smekal
🔁Yevgeniy Skybaout: Michal Frydrych
72'
🔁Vaclav Jureckaout: Rhodri Smith
72'
⚽Vit Skrkonassist: Jiri Boula
81'
86'
🔁Daniel Smekalout: Kahuan Vinicius
86'
🔁Abdoull Tankoout: Jan Tredl
88'
Denis Halinský

Match stats — Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice

54%Possession46%
14Shots16
4On target7
6Corners4

Line-ups

Baník Ostrava 3-4-1-2
  • 23M. JedličkaG
  • 44Y. SkybaD
  • 83R. NoghaD
  • 42J. MíčekD
  • 95D. HolzerM
  • 5J. BoulaM
  • 8A. TraoréM
  • 34A. BeweneM
  • 28F. KubalaM
  • 15V. JurečkaF
  • 22V. SkrkonF
Substitutes
  • 1V. BudinskýG
  • 16M. DyachukD
  • 17M. FrydrychD
  • 7D. GilbertM
  • 81M. KmeťD
  • 55Artúr MusákM
  • 19F. ŠanclM
  • 3Rhodri SmithD
Coach: R. Skuhravý
Pardubice 3-4-1-2
  • 46V. NeumanG
  • 6M. IchaD
  • 33D. HalinskýD
  • 21M. TraoreD
  • 15E. GodwinM
  • 8S. ŠimekM
  • 19M. HlavatýM
  • 25R. MahutaM
  • 16T. JelínekM
  • 20A. TankoF
  • 35S. ĎatkoF
Substitutes
  • 90G. BotosM
  • 17V. DrchalF
  • 1J. ŠerákG
  • 7D. SimonM
  • 9D. SmékalF
  • 12J. TrédlD
  • 40T. BoledovičD
  • 99Kahuan ViniciusF
  • 27M. ReilD
Coach: J. Trousil

Form going into Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice

Baník Ostrava

  • L0-3away to FK Jablonec9 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Mlada Boleslav6 September 2026
  • W1-0Sigma Olomouc29 August 2026
  • W1-0Artis16 August 2026

Pardubice

  • D0-0away to Slovácko5 September 2026
  • L1-2Artis29 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Sigma Olomouc23 August 2026
  • D1-1Mlada Boleslav15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Baník Ostrava8305515-109
13Pardubice8125713-65

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice

  • 13 September 2026Baník Ostrava 1–2 PardubiceCzech Liga
  • 13 December 2025Baník Ostrava 1–4 PardubiceCzech Liga
  • 5 November 2025Pardubice 3–4 Baník OstravaCup
  • 1 October 2025Pardubice 0–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
  • 29 March 2025Baník Ostrava 5–2 PardubiceCzech Liga
  • 5 March 2025Pardubice 0–2 Baník OstravaCup

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.23 goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.40 for Pardubice; the game produced 1 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Václav Drchal 20' (Pardubice), Abdoull Tanko 54' (Pardubice), Vit Skrkon 81' (Baník Ostrava).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Pardubice the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Baník Ostrava against 1.4 for Pardubice. Baník Ostrava's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.22 for Pardubice.