Regular Season - 6 · 13 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Genk vs Gent Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Cegeka Arena, Genk
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Genk 1-1 Gent.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Genk, 31% draw, 29% Gent — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Genk 1.34, Gent 0.95.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Genk vs Gent

46%
Both teams to score
40%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 14%1-0 13%0-0 11%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Genk at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Genk3%Draw94%Gent3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽Momodou Sonkoassist: Tiago Araújo
21'
Momodou Sonko
32'
Josue Vergara
45+4'
Tiago Araújo
🔁Ayumu Yokoyamaout: Noah Adedeji-Sternberg
45'
🔁Ibrahima Sory Bangouraout: Benjamin Tahirovic
45'
⚽Rafiu Durosinmiassist: Junya Ito
47'
Benjamin Tahirovic
53'
57'
🔁Kyrell Wilsonout: Leonardo Da Silva Lopes
66'
Mathias Delorge
🔁Jeppe Erenbjergout: Daan Heymans
73'
🔁Junya Itoout: Jerry Afriyie
73'
78'
Leonardo Da Silva Lopes
Josue Kongolo
80'
80'
🔁Mathias Delorgeout: Abdelkahar Kadri
80'
🔁Michel Ange Balikwishaout: Hyllarion Goore
80'
🔁Momodou Sonkoout: El Hadji Seck
86'
🔁Josue Vergaraout: Ibrahima Cisse
🔁Rafiu Durosinmiout: Aaron Bibout
87'

Match stats — Genk vs Gent

64%Possession36%
17Shots16
6On target5
4Corners9

Line-ups

Genk 4-2-3-1
  • 28L. Kiaba MoungangaG
  • 20K. AmaroD
  • 6M. SmetsD
  • 44J. KongoloD
  • 18J. KayembeD
  • 21I. BangouraM
  • 8B. HeynenM
  • 10J. ItoM
  • 11J. ErenbjergM
  • 30A. YokoyamaM
  • 17R. DurosinmiF
Substitutes
  • 33J. AfriyieF
  • 23A. BiboutF
  • 32Noah Adedeji-SternbergF
  • 38D. HeymansM
  • 4B. TahirovićM
  • 24N. SattlbergerM
  • 5C. RavychD
  • 25M. RoganovićD
  • 1T. LeysenG
Coach: J. Thorup
Gent 3-4-2-1
  • 33D. RoefG
  • 5M. NgomD
  • 16C. BurgessD
  • 44S. Van der HeydenD
  • 7M. BalikwishaM
  • 27T. De VliegerM
  • 17M. Delorge-KnieperM
  • 20Tiago AraújoM
  • 14Kyrell WilsonM
  • 11M. SonkoM
  • 47J. Y. Vergara OrtegaF
Substitutes
  • 30K. PeersmanG
  • 3M. PaskotšiD
  • 37A. KadriM
  • 45B. GooreF
  • 39A. AyindéD
  • 57M. VolckaertD
  • 59E. SeckF
  • 22Leonardo LopesM
  • 75I. CisseF
Coach: R. Demil

Form going into Genk vs Gent

Genk

  • D0-0away to Anderlecht6 September 2026
  • W4-0SK Beveren28 August 2026
  • D4-4away to Antwerp22 August 2026
  • W3-2KVC Westerlo15 August 2026

Gent

  • W3-0away to Cercle Brugge6 September 2026
  • W1-0OH Leuven3 September 2026
  • W2-1Club Brugge KV30 August 2026
  • W2-1away to RAAL La Louvière16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Genk6231139+49
2Gent6510113+816

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Genk vs Gent

  • 13 September 2026Genk 1–1 GentJupiler Pro League
  • 31 May 2026Gent 1–1 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 1 March 2026Genk 3–0 GentJupiler Pro League
  • 9 November 2025Gent 1–1 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 18 May 2025Gent 1–4 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 30 March 2025Genk 4–0 GentJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Genk and Gent

Genk

  • R. Durosinmi5 goals

Gent

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.34 goals for Genk and 0.95 for Gent; the game produced 1 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Momodou Sonko 10' (Gent), Rafiu Durosinmi 47' (Genk).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Genk the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Genk against 0.95 for Gent. Genk's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/0.83 for Gent.