Genk vs Gent Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Genk 1-1 Gent.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Genk, 31% draw, 30% Gent — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Jupiler Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Genk at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Genk vs Gent
Line-ups
- 28L. Kiaba MoungangaG
- 20K. AmaroD
- 6M. SmetsD
- 44J. KongoloD
- 18J. KayembeD
- 21I. BangouraM
- 8B. HeynenM
- 10J. ItoM
- 11J. ErenbjergM
- 30A. YokoyamaM
- 17R. DurosinmiF
- 33J. AfriyieF
- 23A. BiboutF
- 32Noah Adedeji-SternbergF
- 38D. HeymansM
- 4B. TahirovićM
- 24N. SattlbergerM
- 5C. RavychD
- 25M. RoganovićD
- 1T. LeysenG
- 33D. RoefG
- 5M. NgomD
- 16C. BurgessD
- 44S. Van der HeydenD
- 7M. BalikwishaM
- 27T. De VliegerM
- 17M. Delorge-KnieperM
- 20Tiago AraújoM
- 14Kyrell WilsonM
- 11M. SonkoM
- 47J. Y. Vergara OrtegaF
- 30K. PeersmanG
- 3M. PaskotšiD
- 37A. KadriM
- 45B. GooreF
- 39A. AyindéD
- 57M. VolckaertD
- 59E. SeckF
- 22Leonardo LopesM
- 75I. CisseF
Form going into Genk vs Gent
Genk
Jupiler Pro League
- D0-0away to Anderlecht6 September 2026
Gent
Jupiler Pro League
- W3-0away to Cercle Brugge6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Genk | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 15 |
| 1 | Gent | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 4 | +15 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Genk vs Gent
- 31 May 2026Gent 1–1 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 1 March 2026Genk 3–0 GentJupiler Pro League
- 9 November 2025Gent 1–1 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 18 May 2025Gent 1–4 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 30 March 2025Genk 4–0 GentJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Genk and Gent
Genk
GoalsAssists
- R. Durosinmi60
- A. Bibout30
Gent
GoalsAssists
- I. Cisse40
- M. Sonko31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Genk and Gent drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Genk at 39% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Momodou Sonko 10' for Gent, Rafiu Durosinmi 47' for Genk.
How the call on Genk v Gent has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 39% / 31% / 30%: the biggest move is Genk's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Genk win39%▼ −2
- Draw31%▲ +2
- Gent win30%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.