Union St. Gilloise
vs
Lommel United
Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Union St. Gilloise 5-0 Lommel United.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Union St. Gilloise, 25% draw, 18% Lommel United — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Union St. Gilloise 2.31, Lommel United 0.82.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union St. Gilloise at 57% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United
Line-ups
- 12H. KoffiG
- 5K. Mac AllisterD
- 29M. SyllaD
- 80O. KričfalušiD
- 27L. PatrisM
- 6K. Van de PerreM
- 8A. ZorganeM
- 11Guilherme Henriques da Silva CarvalhoM
- 23B. ZeneliM
- 38R. MofokengF
- 9M. BiondicF
- 1V. ChambaereG
- 20D. AquinoF
- 21D. De RoeveD
- 28D. OlaruM
- 30R. FloruczF
- 55N. HavenaarD
- 25I. HurteventF
- 14I. PavlićM
- 17R. SchoofsM
- 23Matthias PieklakG
- 2J. van DuivenD
- 4S. AdewoyeD
- 5D. WoutersD
- 79S. de GrandD
- 6J. PelupessyM
- 7J. TalvitieM
- 15L. SchoofsM
- 10T. ReynersM
- 11S. AppuahM
- 9Don-Angelo Christoffel Annum-Assamoah KonaduF
- 3T. EyomaD
- 46N. CorthoutsF
- 60L. Beirinckx
- 44I. Dada-MascollM
- 47T. GooijerD
- 22Đ. GordićM
- 8N. RommensM
- 1N. IvezićG
- 73A. ReumersF
Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United
Union St. Gilloise
- W3-2away to Charleroi5 September 2026
- W3-0away to St. Truiden2 September 2026
- W3-0Anderlecht30 August 2026
- D0-0Zulte Waregem15 August 2026
Lommel United
- L0-1Club Brugge KV4 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cercle Brugge29 August 2026
- W4-0KVC Westerlo23 August 2026
- L0-1Charleroi16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union St. Gilloise | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 16 |
| 12 | Lommel United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United
- 12 September 2026Union St. Gilloise 5–0 Lommel UnitedJupiler Pro League
- 11 April 2021Lommel United 0–2 Union St. GilloiseChallenger Pro League
- 27 February 2021Union St. Gilloise 3–2 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
- 13 December 2020Lommel United 0–1 Union St. GilloiseChallenger Pro League
- 4 October 2020Union St. Gilloise 4–2 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
- 26 January 2020Union St. Gilloise 2–2 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
Leading scorers: Union St. Gilloise and Lommel United
Union St. Gilloise
- R. Florucz4 goals
- R. Mofokeng3 goals
- B. Zeneli2 goals4 assists
Lommel United
- T. Reyners3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.31 goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.82 for Lommel United; the game produced 5 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Besfort Zeneli 3' (Union St. Gilloise), Relebohile Mofokeng 7' (Union St. Gilloise), Ilan Hurtevent 65' (Union St. Gilloise), Raul Florucz 88' (Union St. Gilloise), Raul Florucz 90' (Union St. Gilloise).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise against 0.82 for Lommel United. Union St. Gilloise's attack/defence rating is 1.33/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.07 for Lommel United.