12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Union St. Gilloise 5-0 Lommel United.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Union St. Gilloise, 26% draw, 19% Lommel United — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Union St. Gilloise at 55% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Union St. Gilloise99%Draw1%Lommel United0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Besfort Zeneliassist: Mateo Biondic
3'
⚽Relebohile Mofokengassist: Mateo Biondic
7'
26'
🔁Dries Woutersout: Timothy Eyoma
Massire Sylla
42'
Louis Patris
52'
🔁Relebohile Mofokengout: Ilan Hurtevent
64'
🔁Guilherme Smithout: Denzel De Roeve
64'
⚽Ilan Hurteventassist: Kamiel Van De Perre
65'
🔁Kevin Mac Allisterout: Nikki Havenaar
68'
74'
🔁Stredair Appuahout: Niek Corthouts
🔁Besfort Zeneliout: Rob Schoofs
77'
🔁Mateo Biondicout: Raul Florucz
77'
82'
🔁Tom Reynersout: Isaiah Dada-Mascoll
82'
🔁Don-Angelo Konaduout: Tristan Gooijer
⚽Raul Floruczassist: Ilan Hurtevent
88'
89'
Lee David Johnson
⚽Raul Florucz
90+2'
•Raul Florucz
90+3'

Match stats — Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United

59%Possession41%
28Shots11
12On target4
6Corners4

Line-ups

Union St. Gilloise 3-4-1-2
  • 12H. KoffiG
  • 5K. Mac AllisterD
  • 29M. SyllaD
  • 80O. KričfalušiD
  • 27L. PatrisM
  • 6K. Van de PerreM
  • 8A. ZorganeM
  • 11Guilherme Henriques da Silva CarvalhoM
  • 23B. ZeneliM
  • 38R. MofokengF
  • 9M. BiondicF
Substitutes
  • 1V. ChambaereG
  • 20D. AquinoF
  • 21D. De RoeveD
  • 28D. OlaruM
  • 30R. FloruczF
  • 55N. HavenaarD
  • 25I. HurteventF
  • 14I. PavlićM
  • 17R. SchoofsM
Coach: D. Hubert
Lommel United 4-1-4-1
  • 23Matthias PieklakG
  • 2J. van DuivenD
  • 4S. AdewoyeD
  • 5D. WoutersD
  • 79S. de GrandD
  • 6J. PelupessyM
  • 7J. TalvitieM
  • 15L. SchoofsM
  • 10T. ReynersM
  • 11S. AppuahM
  • 9Don-Angelo Christoffel Annum-Assamoah KonaduF
Substitutes
  • 3T. EyomaD
  • 46N. CorthoutsF
  • 60L. Beirinckx
  • 44I. Dada-MascollM
  • 47T. GooijerD
  • 22Đ. GordićM
  • 8N. RommensM
  • 1N. IvezićG
  • 73A. ReumersF
Coach: L. Johnson

Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United

Union St. Gilloise

Jupiler Pro League

  • W3-2away to Charleroi5 September 2026

Lommel United

Jupiler Pro League

  • L0-1Club Brugge KV4 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Union St. Gilloise9720276+2123
8Lommel United93331111012

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United

  • 11 April 2021Lommel United 0–2 Union St. GilloiseChallenger Pro League
  • 27 February 2021Union St. Gilloise 3–2 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
  • 13 December 2020Lommel United 0–1 Union St. GilloiseChallenger Pro League
  • 4 October 2020Union St. Gilloise 4–2 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
  • 26 January 2020Union St. Gilloise 2–2 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League

Leading scorers: Union St. Gilloise and Lommel United

Union St. Gilloise

GoalsAssists

  • R. Florucz50
  • R. Mofokeng42

Lommel United

GoalsAssists

  • Don-Angelo Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Union St. Gilloise beat Lommel United 5–0. The model had made a win for Union St. Gilloise its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Besfort Zeneli 3' for Union St. Gilloise, Relebohile Mofokeng 7' for Union St. Gilloise, Ilan Hurtevent 65' for Union St. Gilloise, Raul Florucz 88' for Union St. Gilloise, Raul Florucz 90+2' for Union St. Gilloise.

How the call on Union St. Gilloise v Lommel United has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 30% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 55% / 26% / 19%: the biggest move is Union St. Gilloise's chance of winning, up 12 points.

  1. Union St. Gilloise win55%▲ +12
  2. Draw26%▼ −4
  3. Lommel United win19%▼ −8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.