Plzen
vs
Sigma Olomouc
Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Plzen 2-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Plzen, 27% draw, 28% Sigma Olomouc — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Plzen 1.89, Sigma Olomouc 1.24.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Plzen at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc
Line-ups
- 44F. WiegeleG
- 29A. GabrielD
- 2T. PališčákD
- 40S. DwehD
- 14Merchas DoskiD
- 17P. HrošovskýM
- 6L. ČervM
- 99A. MemićM
- 18T. LadraM
- 12A. SojkaM
- 7S. LawalF
- 30V. BaierG
- 23B. FaalF
- 25C. KabongoF
- 20Jiří Maxim PanošM
- 36S. PirgiÄM
- 98F. PrebslD
- 19C. SouaréM
- 10M. ToureF
- 13M. TvrdoňG
- 91Jan KoutnýG
- 2A. SyllaD
- 33M. MalýD
- 3L. LurvinkD
- 70A. GhaliM
- 14M. SoldoM
- 7M. BeranM
- 4Léo BorgesM
- 23F. KrivakF
- 10V. SejkF
- 39D. JanošekF
- 19Daniel BaratF
- 17J. DembeF
- 29A. EkerothD
- 22M. HadašD
- 98M. HruškaG
- 11H. MikaelssonF
- 26S. NoumbissieD
- 6J. ŠípM
- 8J. SpáčilM
Form going into Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc
Plzen
- D0-0away to Hradec Králové9 September 2026
- W3-0away to Artis5 September 2026
- D1-1Slovácko30 August 2026
- W3-2Zlin15 August 2026
Sigma Olomouc
- W3-0Bohemians 19055 September 2026
- L0-1away to Baník Ostrava29 August 2026
- W3-1Pardubice23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Slovácko15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Plzen | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 10 |
| 3 | Sigma Olomouc | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc
- 13 September 2026Plzen 2–3 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 14 February 2026Sigma Olomouc 1–2 PlzenCzech Liga
- 13 September 2025Plzen 1–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 18 May 2025Sigma Olomouc 1–2 PlzenCzech Liga
- 3 February 2025Sigma Olomouc 2–1 PlzenCzech Liga
- 17 September 2024Plzen 2–1 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Plzen and Sigma Olomouc
Plzen
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Sigma Olomouc
- V. Sejk3 goals2 assists
- A. Ghali3 goals1 assists
- P. Baráth3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.89 goals for Plzen and 1.24 for Sigma Olomouc; the game produced 2 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ahmad Ghali Abubakar 16' (Sigma Olomouc), Abdoulaye Sylla 34' (Plzen), David Tkáč 41' (Sigma Olomouc), Vaclav Sejk 52' (Sigma Olomouc), Baboucarr Faal 85' (Plzen).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Plzen the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Plzen against 1.24 for Sigma Olomouc. Plzen's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.38 for Sigma Olomouc.