Zenit vs Lokomotiv Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Zenit 2-1 Lokomotiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Zenit, 29% draw, 27% Lokomotiv — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zenit at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Zenit vs Lokomotiv
Line-ups
- 16D. AdamovG
- 25K. AndradeD
- 78I. DiveevD
- 28N. AlipD
- 66R. VegaD
- 5W. BarriosM
- 93A. KarpukasM
- 11Luiz HenriqueM
- 10M. GlushenkovM
- 14Jhon JhonM
- 7A. SobolevF
- 57B. MoskvichevG
- 33NinoD
- 38Amir MusaevM
- 71D. OdoevskiyG
- 20Pedro HenriqueF
- 82S. VolkovD
- 9Felipe AugustoF
- 3Douglas SantosD
- 61D. KondakovM
- 1A. MitryushkinG
- 24M. NenakhovD
- 85E. MorozovD
- 45A. SiljanovD
- 3Lucas FassonD
- 6S. BabkinM
- 75I. EremeevM
- 7Z. BakaevM
- 18N. TitkovM
- 19A. RudenkoM
- 27N. KomlichenkoF
- 74D. ChevardinD
- 47D. GodyaevM
- 63V. GolubevF
- 8A. KovalenkoM
- 22I. LantratovG
- 77A. MostovoyM
- 9S. PinyaevM
- 59E. PogostnovD
- 11V. RakovF
Form going into Zenit vs Lokomotiv
Zenit
All competitions we cover
- L1-2CSKA Moscow5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Fakel29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Spartak Moscow23 August 2026
- W3-0Dynamo16 August 2026
- L1-2Rodina Moskva9 August 2026
Lokomotiv
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Baltika6 September 2026
- L0-1Dynamo29 August 2026
- L2-3away to CSKA Moscow22 August 2026
- D1-1away to FC Orenburg14 August 2026
- D0-0Akron8 August 2026
What these results say
- Zenit scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lokomotiv had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 27 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zenit vs Lokomotiv
- 22 April 2026Lokomotiv 0–0 ZenitPremier League
- 1 November 2025Zenit 2–0 LokomotivPremier League
- 5 April 2025Lokomotiv 1–1 ZenitPremier League
- 27 October 2024Zenit 1–1 LokomotivPremier League
- 3 December 2023Lokomotiv Moscow 3–1 Zenit Saint PetersburgPremier League
Leading scorers: Zenit and Lokomotiv
Zenit
GoalsAssists
- M. Glushenkov102
- A. Sobolev82
Lokomotiv
GoalsAssists
- N. Titkov31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Zenit beat Lokomotiv 2–1. The model had made a win for Zenit its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Aleksandr Rudenko 18' for Lokomotiv, Kevin Andrade 47' for Zenit, Luiz Henrique 70' for Zenit.
How the call on Zenit v Lokomotiv has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 53% / 27% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Zenit's chance of winning, down 9 points.
- Zenit win44%▼ −9
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Lokomotiv win27%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.