Zenit
vs
Lokomotiv
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Zenit 2-1 Lokomotiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Zenit, 29% draw, 28% Lokomotiv — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Zenit 1.61, Lokomotiv 1.06.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Zenit vs Lokomotiv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zenit at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zenit vs Lokomotiv
Zenit
- L1-2CSKA Moscow5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Fakel29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Spartak Moscow23 August 2026
- W3-0Dynamo16 August 2026
Lokomotiv
- W1-0away to Baltika6 September 2026
- L0-1Dynamo29 August 2026
- L2-3away to CSKA Moscow22 August 2026
- D1-1away to FC Orenburg14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Zenit | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 15 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zenit vs Lokomotiv
- 22 April 2026Lokomotiv 0–0 ZenitPremier League
- 1 November 2025Zenit 2–0 LokomotivPremier League
- 5 April 2025Lokomotiv 1–1 ZenitPremier League
- 27 October 2024Zenit 1–1 LokomotivPremier League
- 3 December 2023Lokomotiv Moscow 3–1 Zenit Saint PetersburgPremier League
- 24 September 2023Zenit Saint Petersburg 1–2 Lokomotiv MoscowPremier League
Leading scorers: Zenit and Lokomotiv
Zenit
- A. Sobolev6 goals1 assists
- M. Glushenkov5 goals2 assists
Lokomotiv
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zenit carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.22 for Lokomotiv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Zenit and 1.06 for Lokomotiv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zenit rate 0.58 in attack and 1.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lokomotiv rate 0.48 and 1.71.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zenit a 20.3% chance of the title and Lokomotiv 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zenit the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Zenit against 1.06 for Lokomotiv. Zenit's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.71 for Lokomotiv.