12 September 2026, 17:45 UTC

CSKA Moscow vs Rubin Premier League prediction & result

VEB Arena, Moscow
Full time1 – 1

Final score: CSKA Moscow 1-1 Rubin.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% CSKA Moscow, 29% draw, 29% Rubin — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts CSKA Moscow at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CSKA Moscow3%Draw92%Rubin5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Matvey Kislyak
2'
⚽Ivan Oblyakov (pen)
6'
•Matheus Reis
14'
Matheus Reis
15'
18'
Nikita Lobov
45'
🔁Ilya Rozhkovout: Nazmi Gripshi
45'
🔁Nikita Lobovout: Ilya Samoshnikov
Ivan Oblyakov
54'
58'
⚽Anderson Arroyoassist: Aleksandar Jukic
66'
🔁Aleksandar Jukicout: Ruslan Bezrukov
🔁Tamerlan Musaevout: Luciano Gondou
68'
Luciano Gondou
71'
74'
🔁Jacques Siweout: Daniil Motorin
81'
Daniil Motorin
🔁Kirill Glebovout: Ivan Oleynikov
81'
87'
🔁Igor Vujacicout: Denil Maldonado
88'
Ugochukwu Iwu
90+2'
Jakhongir Urozov

Match stats — CSKA Moscow vs Rubin

39%Possession61%
11Shots16
3On target4
4Corners8

Line-ups

CSKA Moscow 3-4-2-1
  • 49V. ToropG
  • 4João VictorD
  • 79M. ZeaD
  • 23Dzhamalutdin AbdulkadyrovD
  • 21M. AzziM
  • 10I. OblyakovM
  • 31M. KislyakM
  • 2Matheus ReisM
  • 3D. KrugovoyM
  • 17K. GlebovM
  • 11T. MusaevF
Substitutes
  • 99Nikolay BarovskiyG
  • 39M. BoriskoG
  • 62I. FirovF
  • 37HenriqueM
  • 18D. KozlovM
  • 90M. LukinD
  • 7Matheus AlvesM
  • 19I. OleynikovM
  • 20Matija PopovicM
Coach: Dmitriy Igdisamov
Rubin 5-4-1
  • 38E. StaverG
  • 98N. LobovD
  • 2E. TeslenkoD
  • 5I. VujačićD
  • 13J. UrozovD
  • 51I. RozhkovD
  • 12A. ArroyoM
  • 22V. HodžaM
  • 6U. IwuM
  • 77A. JukićM
  • 43J. SiweF
Substitutes
  • 71I. SamoshnikovD
  • 86N. KoretsG
  • 14I. SaavedraM
  • 4K. NizhegorodovD
  • 25A. NigmatullinG
  • 59D. N. MotorinF
  • 3D. MaldonadoD
  • 44D. KuznetsovM
  • 8B. JočićM
Coach: Franc Artiga

Form going into CSKA Moscow vs Rubin

CSKA Moscow

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Zenit5 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Akron28 August 2026
  • W3-2Lokomotiv22 August 2026
  • W1-0Fakel15 August 2026
  • D0-0FC Rostov8 August 2026

Rubin

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Akhmat7 September 2026
  • W3-1Dinamo Makhachkala30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Baltika24 August 2026
  • D1-1away to FC Rostov15 August 2026
  • D1-1FC Orenburg9 August 2026

What these results say

  • CSKA Moscow went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • CSKA Moscow scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Rubin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Rubin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Rubin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3CSKA Moscow127412112+925
11Rubin122641218-612

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CSKA Moscow vs Rubin

  • 25 April 2026Rubin 0–0 CSKA MoscowPremier League
  • 9 August 2025CSKA Moscow 5–1 RubinPremier League
  • 30 November 2024CSKA Moscow 2–2 RubinPremier League
  • 26 November 2024CSKA Moscow 3–0 RubinCup
  • 6 November 2024Rubin 0–0 CSKA MoscowCup

Leading scorers: CSKA Moscow and Rubin

CSKA Moscow

GoalsAssists

  • I. Oblyakov71
  • I. Oleynikov34

Rubin

GoalsAssists

  • A. Arroyo31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

CSKA Moscow and Rubin drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for CSKA Moscow at 42% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ivan Oblyakov (penalty) 6' for CSKA Moscow, Anderson Arroyo 58' for Rubin. Sent off: Matheus Reis (CSKA Moscow) 15'.

How the call on CSKA Moscow v Rubin has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is CSKA Moscow's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. CSKA Moscow win42%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Rubin win29%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.