CSKA Moscow
vs
Rubin
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: CSKA Moscow 1-1 Rubin.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% CSKA Moscow, 29% draw, 29% Rubin — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: CSKA Moscow 1.63, Rubin 1.13.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: CSKA Moscow vs Rubin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Moscow at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CSKA Moscow vs Rubin
CSKA Moscow
- W2-1away to Zenit5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Akron28 August 2026
- W3-2Lokomotiv22 August 2026
- W1-0Fakel15 August 2026
Rubin
- D1-1Akhmat7 September 2026
- W3-1Dinamo Makhachkala30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Baltika24 August 2026
- D1-1away to FC Rostov15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 | Rubin | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA Moscow vs Rubin
- 25 April 2026Rubin 0–0 CSKA MoscowPremier League
- 9 August 2025CSKA Moscow 5–1 RubinPremier League
- 30 November 2024CSKA Moscow 2–2 RubinPremier League
- 26 November 2024CSKA Moscow 3–0 RubinCup
- 6 November 2024Rubin 0–0 CSKA MoscowCup
- 21 September 2024Rubin 1–1 CSKA MoscowPremier League
Leading scorers: CSKA Moscow and Rubin
CSKA Moscow
- I. Oblyakov4 goals
- L. Gondou2 goals1 assists
Rubin
- J. Siwe3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CSKA Moscow carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.28 for Rubin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for CSKA Moscow and 1.13 for Rubin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CSKA Moscow rate 0.59 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rubin rate 0.54 and 1.70.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CSKA Moscow a 8.9% chance of the title and Rubin 1.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA Moscow the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for CSKA Moscow against 1.13 for Rubin. CSKA Moscow's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.7 for Rubin.