12 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

Dynamo vs FC Orenburg Premier League prediction & result

VTB Arena, Moscow
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Dynamo 1-0 FC Orenburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Dynamo, 29% draw, 25% FC Orenburg — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dynamo at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dynamo5%Draw92%FC Orenburg3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Yaroslav Gladyshev
49'
49'
Evgeniy Bolotov
⚽Maksim Osipenko (pen)
50'
58'
🔁Andrey Kasadzhikovout: Egor Nazarenko
58'
🔁Renat Golybinout: Damian Puebla
62'
Ruslan Kul
66'
🔁Dmitriy Rybchinskiyout: Danila Vedernikov
🔁Arthur Gomesout: Viktor Okishor
68'
🔁Yaroslav Gladyshevout: Daniil Fomin
68'
80'
🔁Gedeon Guzinaout: Alexandre Jesus
🔁Rubensout: Dmitriy Skopintsev
84'
🔁Luis Chavezout: Maximiliano Gutierrez
84'
⚽Viktor Okishorassist: Bitello
90'
90+2'
Ruslan Kul
🔁Bitelloout: Timofey Marinkin
90+3'
90+4'
Jhon Alex Palacios
90+4'
Maxime Sivis
90+4'
Maxime Sivis
90+8'
Damian Puebla
Viktor Okishor
90+8'

Match stats — Dynamo vs FC Orenburg

76%Possession24%
17Shots6
7On target4
7Corners1

Line-ups

Dynamo 4-3-3
  • 99A. LunevG
  • 4J. CáceresD
  • 55M. OsipenkoD
  • 57David RicardoD
  • 8RubensD
  • 24L. ChávezM
  • 15D. GlebovM
  • 10BitelloM
  • 91Y. GladyshevF
  • 33I. SergeevF
  • 11Arthur GomesF
Substitutes
  • 74D. FominM
  • 6R. FernándezD
  • 28M. GutiérrezF
  • 50A. KutitskiyM
  • 31I. LeshchukG
  • 5M. MajstorovićD
  • 2N. MarichalD
  • 60T. MarinkinM
  • 88V. OkishorM
Coach: S. Schwarz
FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. OvsyannikovG
  • 24M. SivisD
  • 6J. PalaciosD
  • 4D. KhotulevD
  • 26E. TsenovD
  • 78R. KulM
  • 57E. BolotovM
  • 77A. KasadzhikovM
  • 27Renat GolybinM
  • 20D. RybchinskiyM
  • 30G. GuzinaF
Substitutes
  • 3D. VedernikovD
  • 10J. ThompsonM
  • 44João SilvaD
  • 80M. PykhcheevM
  • 8D. PueblaM
  • 11E. NazarenkoM
  • 63O. MinatulaevM
  • 22A. LukashovD
  • 38A. KasimovD
Coach: I. Akhmetzyanov

Form going into Dynamo vs FC Orenburg

Dynamo

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Spartak Moscow6 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Lokomotiv29 August 2026
  • W3-1Rodina Moskva23 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Zenit16 August 2026
  • W3-1Dinamo Makhachkala9 August 2026

FC Orenburg

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Akron6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Spartak Moscow30 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Fakel22 August 2026
  • D1-1Lokomotiv14 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Rubin9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Dynamo won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Dynamo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Dynamo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Orenburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FC Orenburg did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • FC Orenburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Dynamo128131912+725
6FC Orenburg123721412+216

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dynamo vs FC Orenburg

  • 7 July 2026Dynamo 2–1 FC OrenburgFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 April 2026Dynamo 3–3 FC OrenburgPremier League
  • 21 September 2025FC Orenburg 1–3 DynamoPremier League
  • 29 March 2025Dynamo 5–1 FC OrenburgPremier League
  • 1 September 2024FC Orenburg 2–2 DynamoPremier League

Leading scorers: Dynamo and FC Orenburg

Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • K. Tyukavin51
  • V. Okishor32

FC Orenburg

GoalsAssists

  • J. Thompson42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dynamo beat FC Orenburg 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Dynamo at 46%. The goal: Viktor Okishor 90' for Dynamo. Sent off: Ruslan Kul (FC Orenburg) 90+2', Maxime Sivis (FC Orenburg) 90+4'.

How the call on Dynamo v FC Orenburg has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 31% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Dynamo's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Dynamo win46%▲ +4
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. FC Orenburg win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.