Regular Season - 15 · 7 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd Super Liga prediction

Surdulica City Stadium, Surdulica

Our model says: Radnik Surdulica 2–1 OFK Beograd

The model makes it 45% Radnik Surdulica, 26% draw, 29% OFK Beograd — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Radnik Surdulica 1.72, OFK Beograd 1.26.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Radnik Surdulica's rating is built from 50 Serbian SuperLiga matches and OFK Beograd's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 682 matches.

Key facts

  • Radnik Surdulica are 6th on 17 points from 13 games; OFK Beograd are 11th on 11 points from 12 games — Super Liga.
  • Radnik Surdulica have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Radnicki 1923.
  • OFK Beograd have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Macva.
  • Last 4 meetings: Radnik Surdulica 1 win to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended OFK Beograd 0–0 Radnik Surdulica.

More Serbian SuperLiga predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd

59%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Radnik Surdulica win Draw OFK Beograd win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–08%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Radnik Surdulica first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 45%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Radnik Surdulica at 45% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd

Radnik Surdulica

Super Liga

  • L0-1away to Radnicki 192323 October 2026
  • W3-0Radnicki NIS16 October 2026
  • L0-1away to IMT Novi Beograd10 October 2026
  • D4-4FK Partizan19 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Zemun14 September 2026

OFK Beograd

Super Liga

  • D1-1away to Macva17 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Mladost Lucani12 October 2026
  • L3-5Radnicki 192319 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Radnicki NIS13 September 2026
  • D1-1IMT Novi Beograd7 September 2026

What these results say

  • Radnik Surdulica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Radnik Surdulica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • OFK Beograd did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • OFK Beograd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • OFK Beograd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Radnik Surdulica134541717017
11OFK Beograd122551422-811

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd

  • 25 July 2026OFK Beograd 0–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
  • 26 April 2026OFK Beograd 1–1 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
  • 9 April 2026OFK Beograd 0–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
  • 8 November 2025Radnik Surdulica 1–0 OFK BeogradSuper Liga

Leading scorers: Radnik Surdulica and OFK Beograd

Radnik Surdulica

GoalsAssists

  • V. Bogdanović60
  • M. Novaković32

OFK Beograd

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Silue70

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Radnik Surdulica carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.23 for OFK Beograd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Radnik Surdulica and 1.26 for OFK Beograd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Radnik Surdulica rate 0.55 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OFK Beograd rate 0.56 and 1.95.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Radnik Surdulica the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Radnik Surdulica against 1.26 for OFK Beograd. Radnik Surdulica's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.95 for OFK Beograd.

How the model reaches 45% for Radnik Surdulica to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Radnik Surdulica to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Radnik Surdulica's ratings take away 27 points and OFK Beograd's ratings add 30 points, which lands on the published 45%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage42%+5
  3. Radnik Surdulica's ratings15%−27
  4. OFK Beograd's ratings45%+30

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

Radnik SurdulicaOFK Beograd
13Matches12
4W 5D 4LRecord2W 5D 5L
17 1.3 per gameGoals scored14 1.2 per game
17 1.3 per gameGoals conceded22 1.8 per game
4 of 13Clean sheets3 of 12
4 of 13Failed to score4 of 12
3 of 3Penalties scored1 of 1
39 3.0 per gameYellow cards28 2.3 per game
2Red cards1
4-2-3-1 12×Usual shape4-1-4-1 5×

Radnik Surdulica at home · OFK Beograd away

7Played7
4W 3D 0LRecord1W 2D 4L
14–7Goals for – against7–14
3 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Super Liga matches this season: Radnik Surdulica 13, OFK Beograd 12.

Radnik Surdulica scored 244530
OFK Beograd conceded 325445

Radnik Surdulica score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); OFK Beograd have let in 4 there.

OFK Beograd scored 331240
Radnik Surdulica conceded 030551

OFK Beograd score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Radnik Surdulica have let in 5 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Radnik Surdulica

  • at FK Crvena Zvezda21 Nov · Super Ligawin 10%
  • vs Vojvodina28 Nov · Super Ligawin 26%
  • at Macva6 Dec · Super Ligawin 41%
  • at Novi Pazar6 Feb · Super Ligawin 32%

OFK Beograd

  • vs Novi Pazar21 Nov · Super Ligawin 41%
  • at Železničar Pančevo28 Nov · Super Ligawin 19%
  • vs Cukaricki6 Dec · Super Ligawin 42%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.