Hangzhou Greentown
vs
Chengdu Better City
Super League prediction
The model makes it 31% Hangzhou Greentown, 21% draw, 48% Chengdu Better City — fair odds of 3.23, 4.76 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Hangzhou Greentown 1.70, Chengdu Better City 2.13.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Hangzhou Greentown
- L1-2away to Beijing Guoan1 August 2026
- W3-2Dalian Zhixing26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Chongqing Tongliang Long18 July 2026
- W3-2Qingdao Jonoon14 July 2026
- L2-3away to Shanghai Shenhua5 July 2026
Chengdu Better City
- L0-1away to Yunnan Yukun8 August 2026
- D1-1Wuhan Three Towns1 August 2026
- D2-2Beijing Guoan26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Qingdao Youth Island17 July 2026
- D1-1Chongqing Tongliang Long11 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hangzhou Greentown | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 31 | 36 | -5 | 24 |
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 22 | +20 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Hangzhou Greentown
No league goals recorded yet.
Chengdu Better City
- Felipe12 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hangzhou Greentown carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.34 for Chengdu Better City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Hangzhou Greentown L-W-D-W-L; Chengdu Better City D-D-D-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 2.13 for Chengdu Better City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hangzhou Greentown rate 0.57 in attack and 2.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chengdu Better City rate 0.57 and 1.58.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hangzhou Greentown a 0% chance of the title and Chengdu Better City 99.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chengdu Better City the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.7 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown against 2.13 for Chengdu Better City. Hangzhou Greentown's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.58 for Chengdu Better City.