Wydad AC
vs
Moghreb Tetouan
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Wydad AC 1–0 Moghreb Tetouan
The model makes it 42% Wydad AC, 31% draw, 27% Moghreb Tetouan — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Wydad AC 1.21, Moghreb Tetouan 0.86.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,012 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Wydad AC's rating is built from 34 Botola Pro matches and Moghreb Tetouan's from 4, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 518 matches.
Key facts
- Wydad AC are 9th on 5 points from 4 games; Moghreb Tetouan are 14th on 3 points from 4 games — Botola Pro.
- Wydad AC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Amal Tiznit.
- Moghreb Tetouan have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Difaa EL Jadida.
- Last 6 meetings: Wydad AC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 April 2025, ended Moghreb Tetouan 1–0 Wydad AC.
More Botola Pro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wydad AC vs Moghreb Tetouan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wydad AC at 42% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wydad AC vs Moghreb Tetouan
Wydad AC
- D1-1Amal Tiznit18 October 2026
- D0-0CODM Meknès11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Difaa EL Jadida3 October 2026
- L1-3Widad Témara26 September 2026
Moghreb Tetouan
- L1-4away to Difaa EL Jadida17 October 2026
- D0-0FUS Rabat9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ittihad Tanger2 October 2026
- D0-0Renaissance Berkane27 September 2026
What these results say
- Wydad AC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Wydad AC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Wydad AC had two goals or fewer.
- Moghreb Tetouan did not win any of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Moghreb Tetouan had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Wydad AC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 14 | Moghreb Tetouan | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Wydad AC vs Moghreb Tetouan
- 5 April 2025Moghreb Tetouan 1–0 Wydad ACCup
- 4 January 2025Moghreb Tetouan 1–2 Wydad ACBotola Pro
- 14 September 2024Wydad AC 1–0 Moghreb TetouanBotola Pro
- 14 June 2024Wydad AC 1–0 Moghreb TetouanBotola Pro
- 7 January 2024Moghreb Tetouan 0–0 Wydad ACBotola Pro
- 29 May 2023Wydad AC 2–0 Moghreb TetouanBotola Pro
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wydad AC carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.15 for Moghreb Tetouan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Wydad AC and 0.86 for Moghreb Tetouan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wydad AC rate 0.54 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Moghreb Tetouan rate 0.44 and 1.80.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,088 correct results out of 4,337 settled predictions (48%), with 440 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wydad AC the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Wydad AC against 0.86 for Moghreb Tetouan. Wydad AC's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.8 for Moghreb Tetouan.
Season stats
Wydad AC at home · Moghreb Tetouan away
League matches only, Botola Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Wydad ACMoghreb Tetouan
Wydad AC are 9th after 4 Botola Pro matches (between 8th and 15th so far); Moghreb Tetouan are 13th after 4 (between 5th and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Botola Pro matches this season: Wydad AC 4, Moghreb Tetouan 4.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Wydad AC
- at Kawkab Marrakech7 Nov · Botola Prowin 27%
Moghreb Tetouan
- vs CODM Meknès7 Nov · Botola Prowin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.