Amal Tiznit
vs
Kawkab Marrakech
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Amal Tiznit 0–1 Kawkab Marrakech
The model makes it 27% Amal Tiznit, 29% draw, 44% Kawkab Marrakech — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Amal Tiznit 0.96, Kawkab Marrakech 1.39.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,012 settled matches.
Edge to Kawkab Marrakech: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Amal Tiznit's rating is built from 6 Botola Pro matches and Kawkab Marrakech's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 518 matches.
Key facts
- Amal Tiznit are 11th on 4 points from 4 games; Kawkab Marrakech are top on 9 points from 4 games — Botola Pro.
- Amal Tiznit have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Wydad AC.
- Kawkab Marrakech are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Widad Témara.
More Botola Pro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Amal Tiznit vs Kawkab Marrakech
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kawkab Marrakech at 44% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Amal Tiznit vs Kawkab Marrakech
Amal Tiznit
- D1-1away to Wydad AC18 October 2026
- L2-5Difaa EL Jadida10 October 2026
- W1-0away to FUS Rabat2 October 2026
- L1-3Ittihad Tanger24 September 2026
Kawkab Marrakech
- W1-0away to Widad Témara18 October 2026
- W2-1Ittihad Tanger10 October 2026
- W1-0away to CODM Meknès3 October 2026
- L2-3Hassania Agadir27 September 2026
What these results say
- Amal Tiznit scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Amal Tiznit failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Amal Tiznit conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Kawkab Marrakech scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Kawkab Marrakech won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Amal Tiznit | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 1 | Kawkab Marrakech | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Amal Tiznit carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.39 for Kawkab Marrakech. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.96 goals for Amal Tiznit and 1.39 for Kawkab Marrakech. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Amal Tiznit rate 0.55 in attack and 2.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kawkab Marrakech rate 0.55 and 1.40.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,088 correct results out of 4,337 settled predictions (48%), with 440 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kawkab Marrakech the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Amal Tiznit against 1.39 for Kawkab Marrakech. Amal Tiznit's attack/defence rating is 0.55/2.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.4 for Kawkab Marrakech.
Season stats
Amal Tiznit at home · Kawkab Marrakech away
League matches only, Botola Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Amal TiznitKawkab Marrakech
Amal Tiznit are 11th after 4 Botola Pro matches (between 7th and 16th so far); Kawkab Marrakech are 1st after 4 (between 1st and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Botola Pro matches this season: Amal Tiznit 4, Kawkab Marrakech 4.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Amal Tiznit
- at UTS Rabat6 Nov · Botola Prowin 24%
Kawkab Marrakech
- vs Wydad AC7 Nov · Botola Prowin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.