12 September 2026, 11:35 UTC

Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye Super League prediction & result

Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Wuhan
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Wuhan Three Towns 1-1 Henan Jianye.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Wuhan Three Towns, 25% draw, 21% Henan Jianye — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Wuhan Three Towns at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wuhan Three Towns97%Draw3%Henan Jianye0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. Cadiz (pen)
52'
58'
🔁Zheng Dalunout: Zhong Yihao
77'
🔁Huang Ruifengout: Haliq Ablahan
77'
🔁Shinar Yeljanout: N. Muhmet
81'
Nebijan Muhmet
🔁A. Leauteyout: Wang Jinxian
82'
🔁Zhang Xiaobinout: Liao Chengjian
82'
83'
🔁He Chaoout: O. Gerbig
Kaimu Zheng
84'
🔁Gustavo Sauerout: Liu Yiming
87'
Kaimu Zheng
90+7'
Zhechao Chen
90+4'
Kaimu Zheng
90+7'
🔁Xu Haofengout: Chen Zhechao
90+1'
90'
⚽Gustavoassist: Pedro Maranhao

Match stats — Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye

38%Possession62%
12Shots24
3On target4
3Corners11
1.17xG2.35

Goals against chances

Wuhan Three Towns1 from 1.17 xGabout what the chances were worth
Henan Jianye1 from 2.35 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Wuhan Three Towns 4-2-3-1
  • 22Fang JingqiG
  • 23Ming TianD
  • 13Zheng KaimuD
  • 11Li AngD
  • 4Xu HaofengD
  • 18Zhang XiaobinM
  • 20Adriano FirminoM
  • 50A. LeauteyM
  • 7Gustavo SauerM
  • 10K. BevisM
  • 29J. CadizF
Substitutes
  • 31Guo JiayuG
  • 28Wang DennyD
  • 19Liu YimingD
  • 5Li ShenyuanD
  • 8Wang JinxianM
  • 12Liao ChengjianM
  • 30Zhong JinbaoM
  • 15Chen ZhechaoD
  • 16Min ZixiM
Coach: Ricardo Soares
Henan Jianye 4-2-3-1
  • 33Shi ChenglongG
  • 4Shinar YeljanD
  • 2Iago MaidanaD
  • 23Lucas MaiaD
  • 22Huang RuifengD
  • 6Wang ShangyuanM
  • 21He ChaoM
  • 29Zheng DalunM
  • 10Bruno NazarioM
  • 8Pedro MaranhaoM
  • 9GustavoF
Substitutes
  • 18Wang GuomingG
  • 17Wang JinshuaiG
  • 5Liu JiahuiD
  • 27Liu YixinD
  • 3O. GerbigD
  • 15Haliq AblahanM
  • 25Yang YilinM
  • 16Yang KuoD
  • 13A. AbudulamM
Coach: Daniel Ramos

Form going into Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye

Wuhan Three Towns

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Qingdao Youth Island5 September 2026
  • W5-1away to Qingdao Jonoon29 August 2026
  • D0-0Tianjin Teda22 August 2026
  • L2-3SHANGHAI SIPG14 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Hangzhou Greentown8 August 2026

Henan Jianye

Super League

  • D0-0Chengdu Better City6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Wuhan Three Towns failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Wuhan Three Towns scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Wuhan Three Towns conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Wuhan Three Towns29512124455-1122
14Henan Jianye29810113842-428

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye

Wuhan Three Towns

GoalsAssists

  • J. Cádiz216

Henan Jianye

GoalsAssists

  • Gustavo156
  • Bruno Nazário106

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Wuhan Three Towns at 54% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Cadiz (penalty) 52' for Wuhan Three Towns, Gustavo 90' for Henan Jianye. Sent off: Kaimu Zheng (Wuhan Three Towns) 90+7'. On expected goals it finished 1.17–2.35.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.