Wuhan Three Towns
vs
Henan Jianye
Super League prediction & result
Final score: Wuhan Three Towns 1-1 Henan Jianye.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Wuhan Three Towns, 25% draw, 22% Henan Jianye — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Wuhan Three Towns 2.20, Henan Jianye 1.00.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wuhan Three Towns at 53% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye
Wuhan Three Towns
- D2-2Qingdao Youth Island5 September 2026
- W5-1away to Qingdao Jonoon29 August 2026
- D0-0Tianjin Teda22 August 2026
- L2-3SHANGHAI SIPG14 August 2026
Henan Jianye
- D0-0Chengdu Better City6 September 2026
- D1-1Chongqing Tongliang Long29 August 2026
- D4-4away to Shenyang Urban23 August 2026
- L1-4away to Shanghai Shenhua15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 25 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 | Henan Jianye | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye
Wuhan Three Towns
- J. Cádiz17 goals6 assists
Henan Jianye
- Gustavo13 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Wuhan Three Towns carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.1 for Henan Jianye. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.20 goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.00 for Henan Jianye. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wuhan Three Towns rate 0.69 in attack and 1.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Henan Jianye rate 0.43 and 1.96.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Henan Jianye, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wuhan Three Towns the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.2 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns against 1 for Henan Jianye. Wuhan Three Towns's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.96 for Henan Jianye.