Tianjin Teda
vs
Shenyang Urban
Super League prediction & result
Final score: Tianjin Teda 1-0 Shenyang Urban.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Tianjin Teda, 24% draw, 18% Shenyang Urban — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Tianjin Teda 2.48, Shenyang Urban 0.87.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tianjin Teda at 58% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban
Tianjin Teda
- W2-1Hangzhou Greentown6 September 2026
- D1-1Qingdao Youth Island29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Wuhan Three Towns22 August 2026
- L2-4Beijing Guoan15 August 2026
Shenyang Urban
- L0-5away to Yunnan Yukun6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Chengdu Better City29 August 2026
- D4-4Henan Jianye23 August 2026
- L1-2Sichuan Jiuniu15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Tianjin Teda | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Tianjin Teda and Shenyang Urban
Tianjin Teda
- Alberto Quiles10 goals4 assists
Shenyang Urban
- Jeffinho10 goals2 assists
- G. Mbenza9 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Tianjin Teda carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6 for Shenyang Urban. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.48 goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.87 for Shenyang Urban. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tianjin Teda rate 0.59 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shenyang Urban rate 0.47 and 2.58.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Shenyang Urban, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tianjin Teda the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Tianjin Teda against 0.87 for Shenyang Urban. Tianjin Teda's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.58 for Shenyang Urban.