Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban Super League prediction & result
Final score: Tianjin Teda 1-0 Shenyang Urban.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Tianjin Teda, 23% draw, 18% Shenyang Urban — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tianjin Teda at 59% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25Yan BingliangG
- 11Xie WeijunD
- 18A. CordobaD
- 6Wang XianjunD
- 31Sun Ming-HimD
- 29Ba DunM
- 30Wang QiumingM
- 10C. SalvadorM
- 14Huang JiahuiM
- 9A. QuilesF
- 8XadasF
- 21Qi YuxiG
- 3Wang ZhenghaoD
- 38S. LiD
- 20Ji ShengpanF
- 17Wu XinghanD
- 28Guo HaoM
- 24Chen ZhexuanD
- 22Li YongjiaM
- 16Liu ShuaiD
- 29Zhang YanG
- 3Pan XimingD
- 26Yuan MinchengD
- 15FelipeD
- 5D. MawlanniyazM
- 10T. KunimotoM
- 18Li TixiangM
- 11Chen BinbinM
- 7A. KouameF
- 9G. MbenzaF
- 47JeffinhoF
- 21Han RongzeG
- 28Xu DongD
- 27Gao JiarunD
- 33Tian YinongM
- 36Tian DeaoM
- 35Li HaoranD
- 30Pang ShenghanD
- 34H. ZhangD
- 8Yan DinghaoM
Form going into Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban
Tianjin Teda
Super League
- W2-1Hangzhou Greentown6 September 2026
Shenyang Urban
Super League
- L0-5away to Yunnan Yukun6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tianjin Teda | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 39 | 35 | +4 | 31 |
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Tianjin Teda and Shenyang Urban
Tianjin Teda
GoalsAssists
- Alberto Quiles115
Shenyang Urban
GoalsAssists
- Jeffinho122
- G. Mbenza111
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Tianjin Teda beat Shenyang Urban 1–0. The model had made a win for Tianjin Teda its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: A. Cordoba 10' for Tianjin Teda. On expected goals it finished 1.17–1.17.
How the call on Tianjin Teda v Shenyang Urban has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 67% / 19% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 59% / 23% / 18%: the biggest move is Tianjin Teda's chance of winning, down 8 points.
- Tianjin Teda win59%▼ −8
- Draw23%▲ +4
- Shenyang Urban win18%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.